Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$759
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
110 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Michigan” vs “Will UCLA qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan
Cluster 2
Will UCLA qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will UCLA qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: UCLA
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-UCLA
Cluster 3
Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Indiana
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-IND
Cluster 4
Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-OSU
Cluster 5
Will Iowa qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Iowa qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Iowa
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-IOWA
Cluster 6
Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Penn St.
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-PSU
Cluster 7
Will Oregon qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Oregon qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Oregon
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-ORE
Cluster 8
Will USC qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will USC qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: USC
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-USC
Cluster 9
Will Illinois qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Illinois qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Illinois
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-ILL
Cluster 10
Will Washington qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Washington qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Washington
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-WASH
Cluster 11
Will Minnesota qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Minnesota qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Minnesota
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-MINN
Cluster 12
Will Maryland qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Maryland qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Maryland
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-MD
Cluster 13
Will Northwestern qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Northwestern qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Northwestern
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-NW
Cluster 14
Will Purdue qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Purdue qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Purdue
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-PUR
Cluster 15
Will Rutgers qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game
Will Rutgers qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Rutgers
KXNCAAFB10QUAL-26-RUTG
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chances that Penn State will win the Big Ten football conference championship game in 2026, qualifying them for that matchup through regular-season conference play. The 11% probability suggests market participants see Penn State as a moderate contender among Big Ten programs but not among the favorites—notably trailing Ohio State at 34% and well behind programs like Michigan and USC at 7% each. Penn State's path depends on their regular-season performance starting in fall 2026, their head-to-head results against other competitive conference teams, and whether they can secure one of the two spots in the championship game. The primary resolution point will be the conclusion of the 2026 college football season in early 2027, when either Penn State qualifies for the championship game or they do not. Factors that could shift this probability include coaching changes, recruiting outcomes through summer 2026, and preseason assessments of roster strength relative to conference rivals.
- ›Penn State's 2025 season results and bowl game performance, which would influence 2026 roster composition and program momentum heading into the market period
- ›Conference strength distribution: whether Ohio State, Michigan, and other traditionally strong programs maintain competitive rosters, directly affecting the number of viable contenders for the two championship spots
- ›Penn State's quarterback situation and offensive line depth entering the 2026 season, as these factors typically correlate with Big Ten championship contention
- ›Regular-season scheduling: the specific opponents Penn State faces and the distribution of road vs. home games in 2026 conference play
- ›Win-loss performance in September and October 2026: early-season results would provide concrete data to adjust market expectations for championship qualification
What moved the line
- Sep 19UCLA↑26pp18→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Oregon↓17pp40→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Penn St.↑13pp6→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Indiana↑9pp37→46¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Indiana↓9pp46→37¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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