Will at least 3 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season
Leader sits at 78% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 43%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2+ teams
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
43¢
3+ teams
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$504
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
133 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will at least
Will at least 3 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 3+ teams
KXNCAAFBIG12WINS-26W10-3
Will at least 4 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 4+ teams
KXNCAAFBIG12WINS-26W10-4
Will at least 2 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 2+ teams
KXNCAAFBIG12WINS-26W10-2
Analysis
This contract asks whether at least three Big 12 teams will win 10+ games during the 2026 regular season. The 45% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether the conference can field three double-digit-win teams simultaneously. The Big 12's competitive depth, strength of schedule distribution across member schools, and injury patterns throughout the season will determine outcomes. Historical precedent shows major conferences regularly produce 2-3 ten-win teams, but clustering three within a single conference requires sustained performance across multiple programs. The resolution depends entirely on final regular-season records, which will be determined after the 2026 season concludes in November-December 2026. Key variables include the conference's overall strength relative to competitors, whether traditional powers (Texas, Oklahoma, etc.) maintain excellence, and whether mid-tier programs exceed typical performance levels.
- ›Conference strength relative to other Power conferences affects how many Big 12 teams accumulate 10-win records through SOS difficulty
- ›Historical Big 12 performance shows 1-2 double-digit-win teams are common, but three simultaneously is less frequent and requires sustained excellence
- ›Schedule composition and injury luck across multiple programs must align for three separate teams to each win 10+ conference and non-conference games
- ›As of August 2026, preseason expectations and roster composition are already set; remaining catalyst is actual game outcomes through November-December 2026
- ›Strength of individual programs' non-conference schedules affects total-win accumulation independent of conference play
What moved the line
- Aug 212+ teams↑30pp45→75¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 223+ teams↑17pp41→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 224+ teams↑14pp5→19¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 203+ teams↑13pp19→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 213+ teams↑9pp32→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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