Bret Bielema out before Feb 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract reflects the probability that Bret Bielema will be dismissed or depart as a college football head coach before February 1, 2027—roughly five months away. At 12%, the market is pricing this as an unlikely near-term outcome. Coaches typically face termination pressure during or immediately after losing seasons, and Bielema's team performance through the 2026 season will be the primary driver. If the team suffers significant losses or dysfunction, speculation about his job security would likely increase the contract price. Conversely, continued competitive success would keep the probability low. The resolution point is effectively the end of the regular season and any bowl game conclusions; January's coaching carousel activity and any public statements about his future status would provide the clearest signals before the February deadline.

• ›Team's win-loss record and bowl eligibility status through end of 2026 season will directly affect coaching stability
• ›Public comments from athletic director or booster groups regarding confidence in current coaching staff
• ›Comparison to market prices for other coaches (Luke Fickell at 25% suggests Bielema's situation is viewed as more stable)
• ›Timing of any contract extension or modification announcement during or after the season
• ›Presence or absence of reported buyout negotiations or departure talks in January

What moved the line

• Sep 10Dave Aranda↓24pp38→14¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 9Mike Norvell↑24pp52→76¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 7Dabo Swinney↑10pp25→35¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 8Dabo Swinney↑8pp35→43¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 9Dabo Swinney↑8pp43→51¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds