Will the Big 12 win the College Football National Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$619
4 contracts
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
161 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Any Other Conference/Independent win the College Football National Championship
Cluster 2
Will the SEC win the College Football National Championship
Will the SEC win the College Football National Championship?: SEC
KXNCAAFCONF-26-SEC
Cluster 3
Will the ACC win the College Football National Championship
Will the ACC win the College Football National Championship?: ACC
KXNCAAFCONF-26-ACC
Cluster 4
Will the Big Ten win the College Football National Championship
Will the Big Ten win the College Football National Championship?: Big Ten
KXNCAAFCONF-26-B10
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects market expectations that the Big 12 Conference will produce the national champion in the 2026 college football season. The Big Ten (38%) and SEC (36%) are favored, suggesting markets view these conferences as having stronger overall rosters and recent championship pedigree. The Big 12's probability is driven by conference-wide competitive depth and individual team strength, with outcomes depending on injuries, coaching performance, and bowl-game execution. The national championship game, scheduled for January 2027, will definitively resolve this contract. Between now and then, key information will emerge from regular season performance, conference tournament results if applicable, and the playoff selection process in December 2026, which determines which Big 12 teams compete for the title.
- ›Big 12 conference teams' win-loss records and strength of schedule through the regular season
- ›Playoff committee rankings released in December 2026 and which Big 12 teams receive invitations
- ›Relative health and performance of star players on Big 12 rosters compared to Big Ten and SEC competitors
- ›Head-to-head results between Big 12 teams and top-ranked teams from other conferences
- ›Betting handle and volume on Big 12 contracts, indicating whether sophisticated traders are shifting their positioning
What moved the line
- Sep 17SEC↑6pp39→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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