Will UMass win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
191 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Buffalo win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
Will Buffalo win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Buffalo
KXNCAAFMAC-26-BUFF
Cluster 2
Will Central Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
Will Central Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Central Michigan
KXNCAAFMAC-26-CMU
Cluster 3
Will Miami (OH) win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
Will Miami (OH) win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Miami (OH)
KXNCAAFMAC-26-MOH
Cluster 4
Will Ohio win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
Will Ohio win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Ohio
KXNCAAFMAC-26-OHIO
Cluster 5
Will Toledo win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
Will Toledo win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Toledo
KXNCAAFMAC-26-TOL
Cluster 6
Will Western Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
Analysis
This probability represents the odds that UMass wins the Mid-American Conference Championship in college football this season. At 13%, the market is pricing UMass as a significant underdog relative to traditional powerhouses. The low probability reflects UMass's historical performance in the MAC and typical roster composition compared to stronger regional competitors. The main factor driving this level is UMass's competitive standing within the conference—teams with stronger recruiting classes, more experienced quarterbacks, or recent tournament success typically command higher odds. The biggest catalyst will be the actual 2026 season performance, with early games and conference matchups in autumn determining whether UMass can realistically contend for the title. Additional clarity will emerge as preseason rankings and team rosters are finalized in summer 2026.
- ›UMass's historical win-loss record and MAC standings placement relative to peer institutions
- ›Quarterback depth, offensive line health, and defensive roster composition entering the 2026 season
- ›Conference strength distribution—whether other MAC teams have significant roster improvements or coaching changes
- ›Early season performance through September and October 2026 games against ranked or strong MAC opponents
- ›Strength of schedule down the stretch and head-to-head results against top MAC contenders in the regular season
What moved the line
- Jun 21Western Michigan↑4pp18→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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