Will Miami (OH) qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
112 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Akron qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Will Akron qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Akron
KXNCAAFMACQUAL-26-AKR
Cluster 2
Will Ball St. qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Cluster 3
Will Bowling Green qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Cluster 4
Will Buffalo qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Cluster 5
Will Eastern Michigan qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Cluster 6
Will Miami (OH) qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Cluster 7
Will Toledo qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Will Toledo qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Toledo
KXNCAAFMACQUAL-26-TOL
Cluster 8
Will Western Michigan qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Analysis
This 20% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Miami University (Ohio) finishes among the top teams in the Mid-American Conference and qualifies for the conference championship game. The relatively low probability reflects Miami's historical performance in the MAC and current roster composition compared to stronger contenders like Western Michigan (30%) and Toledo (26%). Miami's chances depend on regular-season win-loss record, conference strength-of-schedule performance, and whether they avoid major injuries to key players. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the completion of the 2026 college football regular season in late November, when final MAC standings determine the two teams advancing to the championship game. Between now and then, weekly game results will incrementally clarify Miami's actual competitive position against division rivals and overall MAC competition.
- ›Miami (OH)'s current win-loss record and remaining schedule strength through November 2026
- ›Head-to-head and conference performance gaps versus Toledo (26¢) and Western Michigan (30¢) as measured by week-to-week rankings
- ›Injury status of Miami's starting quarterback and defensive line depth as the season progresses
- ›Miami's historical MAC championship appearance rate (frequency and recency of prior conference title game berths)
- ›Conference-wide parity or dominance patterns—whether one or two teams significantly outpace the rest versus a more competitive field
What moved the line
- Sep 17Western Michigan↑14pp35→49¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Miami (OH)↓13pp35→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Eastern Michigan↓11pp20→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Miami (OH)↓10pp30→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Miami (OH)↑8pp22→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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