Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
108 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Fresno St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Will Fresno St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Fresno St.
KXNCAAFPAC12-26-FRES
Cluster 2
Will Oregon St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Will Oregon St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Oregon St.
KXNCAAFPAC12-26-ORST
Cluster 3
Will Boise St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Will Boise St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Boise St.
KXNCAAFPAC12-26-BSU
Cluster 4
Will Colorado St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Will Colorado St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Colorado St.
KXNCAAFPAC12-26-CSU
Cluster 5
Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: San Diego St.
KXNCAAFPAC12-26-SDSU
Cluster 6
Will Texas St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Will Texas St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Texas St.
KXNCAAFPAC12-26-TXST
Cluster 7
Will Washington St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Will Washington St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Washington St.
KXNCAAFPAC12-26-WSU
Analysis
San Diego State has a 13% implied probability of winning the Pac-12 championship this season, based on betting contracts. This reflects market assessment of the Aztecs' ability to compete in a conference that now includes programs like Boise State, Fresno State, and Oregon State following recent realignment. The probability is influenced by San Diego State's roster strength, conference competition level, and remaining schedule. Key uncertainties include how the team performs in conference play over the coming weeks and how injuries or unexpected roster changes affect their championship prospects. The resolution depends on the actual Pac-12 tournament results in December 2026, which will definitively determine whether San Diego State advances to and wins the championship game.
- ›San Diego State's win-loss record and strength of schedule through November will directly indicate playoff contention likelihood
- ›Boise State trading at 46¢ suggests it is the market favorite, meaning San Diego State faces significant competition from at least one well-regarded opponent
- ›Contract volume for San Diego State is very low ($18 in 24h), indicating limited trader interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- ›The Pac-12 field appears competitive, with four teams priced between 9-15¢, suggesting no clear favorites outside Boise State
- ›Conference tournament performance in early December will be the final determinant of championship eligibility
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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