SimpleFunctions
3 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jan 3, 2027 · 239d

Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

50%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

50%

3 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

3 contracts

Closes

Jan 3, 2027

239 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 31% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 31% on 2026-04-18
Aggregate of 3 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Boise St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 2

Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Washington St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market estimates a 50% probability that San Diego State will win the 2026 College Football Pac-12 Championship. The market reflects moderate confidence in the Aztecs' ability to compete for the conference title, suggesting they are viewed as roughly equal contenders with other programs. Factors supporting this level include San Diego State's roster composition, recruiting trajectory, and recent competitive performance, while headwinds might include depth at key positions, schedule strength, and competition from established Pac-12 programs. The probability will likely shift as the 2026 football season approaches and preseason evaluations emerge, with key data points being spring game performance, summer training reports, and preseason polls that provide concrete assessments of team strength relative to conference peers.

  • San Diego State's roster talent level and transfer portal acquisitions relative to other Pac-12 contenders
  • Quarterback stability and offensive line composition entering the 2026 season
  • Strength of schedule and distribution of challenging matchups throughout the conference slate
  • Historical consistency of San Diego State's coaching staff and program trajectory in conference play
  • Injury status of key defensive starters and defensive line depth compared to conference rivals

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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