SimpleFunctions
6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 10, 2027 · 108d

Will Colorado St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 6 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

14%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

14%

6 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$484

6 contracts

Closes

Jan 10, 2027

108 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 13% (23 days, 23 points)Aggregate: 13% on 2026-09-23
Aggregate of 6 contracts · 23d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 6 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Fresno St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game

1 contract$474

Cluster 2

Will Oregon St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game

1 contract$10

Cluster 3

Will Boise St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will San Diego St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Texas St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Washington St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability reflects Colorado State's estimated chance of reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game during the 2026 college football season. The 15% valuation suggests market participants view the Rams as an underdog compared to stronger conference contenders like Boise State (34%) and San Diego State (21%). Colorado State's probability depends primarily on regular-season performance, conference strength relative to peers, and injury developments throughout the fall. The most significant resolution catalyst will be the outcome of conference games beginning in late August through November, with the championship game typically held in early December. Currently, the lack of recent trading volume indicates limited immediate attention, though odds could shift substantially as preseason assessments emerge and actual games begin.

  • ›Colorado State's 2025 season record and returning talent depth versus Pac-12 rivals entering the 2026 season
  • ›Strength of schedule in conference play, particularly matchups against Boise State, San Diego State, and other top-tier Pac-12 teams
  • ›Head-to-head win-loss performance in divisional games that directly determine playoff qualification standings
  • ›Injury status of key offensive and defensive players throughout the regular season, particularly at quarterback and defensive line
  • ›Conference's overall competitiveness and whether two-loss records are sufficient to qualify for the championship game versus typical championship-winning records

What moved the line

  • Sep 23Boise St.↓55pp60→5¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 17Texas St.↑14pp1→15¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 23Fresno St.↑7pp13→20¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 17San Diego St.↑7pp16→23¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 17Boise St.↑6pp52→58¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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