Will Old Dominion qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$772
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
110 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Louisiana” vs “Will Appalachian St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Louisiana
Will Louisiana qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Louisiana
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-ULL
Will Louisiana-Monroe qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Louisiana-Monroe
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-ULM
Will Louisiana Tech qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Louisiana Tech
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-LT
Cluster 2
Will Appalachian St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Cluster 3
Will Arkansas St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Will Arkansas St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Arkansas St.
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-ARST
Cluster 4
Will Troy qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Will Troy qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Troy
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-TROY
Cluster 5
Will Georgia St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Will Georgia St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Georgia St.
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-GAST
Cluster 6
Will James Madison qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Will James Madison qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: James Madison
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-JMU
Cluster 7
Will Marshall qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Will Marshall qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Marshall
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-MRSH
Cluster 8
Will Old Dominion qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Will Old Dominion qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Old Dominion
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-ODU
Cluster 9
Will Southern Miss qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game
Will Southern Miss qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Southern Miss
KXNCAAFSBELTQUAL-26-USM
Analysis
This 7% probability indicates a low likelihood that Old Dominion will reach the Sun Belt Conference championship game this season. The market is pricing in Old Dominion as a long-shot candidate, facing stiff competition from programs like James Madison (13%), Louisiana (6%), Arkansas State (6%), and Troy (5%). Old Dominion's path to the championship game depends primarily on their regular season win-loss record and performance in conference play, as typically only the top teams qualify. The main factors moving this probability would be their actual on-field performance throughout the 2026 college football season and head-to-head results against other contenders. The championship game itself will ultimately resolve this contract once the regular season concludes and conference standings are finalized, likely in November or early December 2026.
- ›Old Dominion's win-loss record during the 2026 regular season, with conference games being weighted most heavily in championship qualification
- ›Head-to-head results against other top Sun Belt contenders, particularly James Madison, Louisiana, Arkansas State, and Troy
- ›The relative strength of schedule Old Dominion faces compared to other Sun Belt programs competing for the two championship game spots
- ›Potential tiebreakers or conference tie-breaking procedures if multiple teams finish with identical conference records
- ›Coaching staff decisions and roster composition entering the 2026 season that determine team competitiveness
What moved the line
- Sep 17Arkansas St.↓18pp25→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Troy↑16pp3→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Louisiana↑14pp3→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Troy↓13pp20→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18James Madison↑13pp15→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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