Will Texas qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$33
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
162 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game?: Ole Miss
KXNCAAFSECQ-26-MISS
Cluster 2
Will Alabama qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Will Alabama qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game?: Alabama
KXNCAAFSECQ-26-ALA
Cluster 3
Will LSU qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Will LSU qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game?: LSU
KXNCAAFSECQ-26-LSU
Cluster 4
Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game?: Oklahoma
KXNCAAFSECQ-26-OKLA
Cluster 5
Will South Carolina qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Will South Carolina qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game?: South Carolina
KXNCAAFSECQ-26-SCAR
Cluster 6
Will Texas qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Will Texas qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game?: Texas
KXNCAAFSECQ-26-TEX
Cluster 7
Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game?: Texas A&M
KXNCAAFSECQ-26-TXAM
Cluster 8
Will Georgia qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game
Will Georgia qualify for the College Football SEC Championship Game?: Georgia
KXNCAAFSECQ-26-UGA
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects the likelihood that Texas will finish as one of the top two teams in the SEC regular season and qualify for the conference championship game. The relatively modest odds despite Texas being a major program reflect the competitive depth of the SEC, where multiple strong teams compete for limited championship spots. Texas's qualification chances hinge primarily on win-loss record in conference play and head-to-head results against other SEC contenders. The outcome will be largely determined by performance throughout the 2026 college football season, with the picture clarifying as conference games are played from September through November.
- ›Texas's SEC conference record and strength of schedule compared to other SEC teams, as the top two finishers qualify
- ›Head-to-head results against other potential SEC Championship contenders like South Carolina (currently priced at 20¢) and Texas A&M (33¢)
- ›Injury status of key Texas players throughout the season, particularly at quarterback and on the offensive line
- ›Strength of Texas's non-conference schedule and how those results affect playoff/championship resume strength
- ›Performance in September and October games that establish momentum and directly impact the final conference standings
What moved the line
- Jul 20Georgia↑28pp11→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23South Carolina↑25pp2→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Texas↑24pp14→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Texas A&M↓24pp33→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Texas↓22pp38→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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