SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 7, 2027 · 165d

Will the Oklahoma college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

26%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

26%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$338

20 contracts

Closes

Feb 7, 2027

165 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 40% (24 days, 24 points)Aggregate: 40% on 2026-08-26
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 24d

Bracket families

18 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Alabama finish in the top” vs “Will the Texas”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Alabama finish in the top

2 contracts$5

Cluster 2

Will the Texas

2 contracts$0

Cluster 3

Will Georgia finish in the top 5 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season

1 contract$250

Cluster 4

Will Texas A&M finish in the top 5 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season

1 contract$83

Cluster 5

Will the Alabama college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will the Florida college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will the LSU college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will the Ole Miss college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will the Oklahoma college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will the South Carolina college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will the Tennessee college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will the Georgia college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Auburn finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Florida finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will LSU finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Ole Miss finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will Missouri finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Oklahoma finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 15% probability indicates traders assess a one-in-six-or-seven chance Oklahoma finishes among the top three teams in SEC standings during the 2026 regular season. Oklahoma joined the SEC in 2024 and faces established powerhouses in conference play. The low probability reflects the competitive depth of the league, where programs like Georgia, Texas, and Alabama typically contend for top positions. The 2026 regular season itself—running from late August through late November—will directly determine final conference standings. Key performance drivers include Oklahoma's roster development in their third SEC season, injury outcomes during the season, and head-to-head results against ranked conference opponents. The resolution occurs after the regular season concludes, when final conference standings become official.

  • Oklahoma finished 6th in SEC standings in 2025; improvement to top-3 requires significant performance gains or favorable schedule outcomes
  • Georgia and Texas are priced at 20¢ each compared to Oklahoma's 5¢, suggesting Oklahoma faces steeper odds than other recent SEC additions
  • SEC conference play typically includes multiple top-25 matchups; Oklahoma's non-conference schedule and strength of late-season opponents will influence final positioning
  • Coaching stability and quarterback performance at Oklahoma will directly impact win-loss record and conference standing
  • The 2026 regular season concludes in late November, at which point final SEC standings determine whether the condition is met or unmet

What moved the line

  • Aug 22Georgia22pp6644¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 25Georgia21pp8160¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22Alabama20pp5636¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 19Ole Miss17pp3013¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20Ole Miss17pp1330¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.