Will at least 3 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season
Leader sits at 96% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1+ team
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
2+ teams
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
153 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will at least
Will at least 1 team in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 1+ team
KXNCAAFSECWINS-26W10-1
Will at least 2 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 2+ teams
KXNCAAFSECWINS-26W10-2
Will at least 8 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 8+ teams
KXNCAAFSECWINS-26W10-8
Will at least 7 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 7+ teams
KXNCAAFSECWINS-26W10-7
Will at least 5 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 5+ teams
KXNCAAFSECWINS-26W10-5
Will at least 4 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 4+ teams
KXNCAAFSECWINS-26W10-4
Will at least 3 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 3+ teams
KXNCAAFSECWINS-26W10-3
Analysis
This market assesses the likelihood that at least three SEC teams will finish the 2026 regular season with 10 or more wins. The 97% probability on the 1+ team outcome reflects high confidence that at least one SEC program will reach double-digit wins, while the 52% price on the 3+ teams outcome suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether that success will be distributed across multiple programs. The current SEC competitiveness, strength of schedule variation across conference members, and injury dynamics throughout the season are primary drivers. The resolution will be determined by final regular-season records in late November 2026, making the strength of individual team rosters and conference parity the key factors to monitor. The market's structure shows traders view one dominant team as likely, but three or more teams reaching 10 wins as a less certain outcome.
- ›SEC team roster quality and transfer portal acquisitions relative to 2025 performance levels
- ›Strength of schedule variation—whether typical contenders face significantly easier nonconference slates
- ›Historical SEC parity trends: over the past five seasons, how many SEC teams typically exceed 10 wins annually
- ›Injury rates among projected SEC contenders during the regular season, particularly at quarterback and offensive line positions
- ›Competitive balance within the conference itself—whether wins are concentrated in 2-3 programs or distributed across 4+ teams
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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