Will Ohio St. be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
11 contracts
Closes
Sep 29, 2026
143 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Notre Dame be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 2
Will Indiana be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 3
Will Oregon be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Oregon be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Oregon
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-ORE
Cluster 4
Will Georgia be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Georgia be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Georgia
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-UGA
Cluster 5
Will Michigan be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 6
Will Arizona be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Arizona be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Arizona
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-ARIZ
Cluster 7
Will BYU be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will BYU be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: BYU
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-BYU
Cluster 8
Will Houston be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Houston be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Houston
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-HOU
Cluster 9
Will Missouri be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 10
Will SMU be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will SMU be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: SMU
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-SMU
Cluster 11
Will Washington be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Ohio State finishes among the top 10 teams in the initial College Football AP Poll for the 2026 season. The 58% estimate sits near even odds, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the Buckeyes' standing heading into the season. Ohio State's ranking will depend primarily on preseason expectations around returning talent, coaching stability, and strength of schedule. The related market for Ohio State being ranked #1 shows lower probability at 44%, indicating most forecasters expect them to be strong but not the consensus top team. Final preseason rankings typically emerge in July-August, which would significantly clarify the market. Historical performance, recruiting class strength, and any roster changes from transfers or departures will heavily influence how voters calibrate Ohio State's week-one placement relative to other traditional powerhouses.
- ›Ohio State's returning quarterback and offensive skill position talent relative to competing programs
- ›Defection or addition of key players through transfer portal activity between now and preseason rankings release
- ›Preseason expectation-setting by major sports media outlets and coaching polls in July-August
- ›Strength of Ohio State's non-conference schedule, which impacts voting perception of team quality
- ›Head coaching continuity and any significant staff changes that signal program direction
What moved the line
- May 8Notre Dame↑28pp52→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 2BYU↑12pp1→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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