Will Ohio St. be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 58% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
58%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
Sep 29, 2026
68 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Texas be a top
Cluster 2
Will Penn St. be a top
Cluster 3
Will Alabama be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 4
Will LSU be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will LSU be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: LSU
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T10-LSU
Cluster 5
Will Ole Miss be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 6
Will Iowa be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Iowa be a top 25 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Iowa
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-IOWA
Cluster 7
Will Arkansas be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Arkansas be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Arkansas
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T10-ARK
Cluster 8
Will BYU be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will BYU be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: BYU
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T10-BYU
Cluster 9
Will Clemson be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 10
Will Indiana be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 11
Will Miami (FL) be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 12
Will Notre Dame be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 13
Will Oklahoma be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 14
Will Oregon be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Oregon be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Oregon
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W1T10-ORE
Cluster 15
Will Ohio St. be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 16
Will South Carolina be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 17
Will Texas Tech be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 18
Will Texas A&M be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Ohio State finishes among the top 10 teams in the initial College Football AP Poll for the 2026 season. The 58% estimate sits near even odds, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the Buckeyes' standing heading into the season. Ohio State's ranking will depend primarily on preseason expectations around returning talent, coaching stability, and strength of schedule. The related market for Ohio State being ranked #1 shows lower probability at 44%, indicating most forecasters expect them to be strong but not the consensus top team. Final preseason rankings typically emerge in July-August, which would significantly clarify the market. Historical performance, recruiting class strength, and any roster changes from transfers or departures will heavily influence how voters calibrate Ohio State's week-one placement relative to other traditional powerhouses.
- ›Ohio State's returning quarterback and offensive skill position talent relative to competing programs
- ›Defection or addition of key players through transfer portal activity between now and preseason rankings release
- ›Preseason expectation-setting by major sports media outlets and coaching polls in July-August
- ›Strength of Ohio State's non-conference schedule, which impacts voting perception of team quality
- ›Head coaching continuity and any significant staff changes that signal program direction
What moved the line
- Jul 20Texas↑83pp10→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Iowa↑68pp2→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Penn St.↑59pp2→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Ohio St.↑48pp48→96¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Ole Miss↑45pp28→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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