Will Ohio St. be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
Nov 24, 2026
65 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 12% of their title tokens — “Will Texas Tech be a top” vs “Will Oregon be a top 5 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Texas Tech be a top
Will Texas Tech be a top 5 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Texas Tech
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W12T5-TTU
Will Texas Tech be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Texas Tech
KXNCAAFTOPAPRANK-26W12T25-TTU
Cluster 2
Will Oregon be a top 5 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 3
Will Ohio St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 4
Will Notre Dame be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 5
Will Texas be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 6
Will Indiana be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 7
Will Miami (FL) be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 8
Will LSU be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 9
Will Alabama be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 10
Will Michigan be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 11
Will USC be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 12
Will Penn St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 13
Will Arkansas be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 14
Will Arizona St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 15
Will Florida St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 16
Will Virginia be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 17
Will Navy be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 18
Will Louisville be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Cluster 19
Will James Madison be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Ohio State will enter the College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings as a top 10 team. The 72% confidence level sits between more pessimistic preseason assessments and the higher certainty reflected in Week 2 projections (91¢), suggesting moderate uncertainty about the Buckeyes' opening ranking. Key drivers include Ohio State's roster composition, offseason roster changes, and how preseason voters typically rank defending national powers. The primary resolution event will be the release of the official AP Poll rankings following the first week of the 2026 college football season. Preseason injury reports and any significant coaching changes could push expectations higher or lower before that release.
- ›Ohio State's performance trajectory in recent seasons and returning talent relative to other top programs
- ›Preseason voter sentiment and historical bias toward established powerhouses in opening rankings
- ›Roster changes through transfer portal and recruitment relative to other elite programs competing for top 10 spots
- ›The timing of the AP Poll release relative to Week 1 games and how much evidence of performance voters will have
- ›Injuries or unexpected departures of key players reported before the Week 1 rankings are finalized
What moved the line
- Sep 18Notre Dame↑72pp20→92¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Notre Dame↓72pp92→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Ohio St.↑67pp20→87¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Oregon↓43pp46→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Oregon↑43pp3→46¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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