Will Ohio St. win at least 12 games this season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 20, 2026
148 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will South Carolina win at least” vs “Will Georgia”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will South Carolina win at least
Will South Carolina win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26SCAR-8
Will South Carolina win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26SCAR-7
Will South Carolina win at least 6 games this season?: 6+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26SCAR-6
Cluster 2
Will Georgia
Cluster 3
Will Mississippi St. win at least
Cluster 4
Will Florida
Cluster 5
Will Ole Miss win at least 8 games this season
Will Ole Miss win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26MISS-8
Cluster 6
Will LSU win at least 10 games this season
Will LSU win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26LSU-10
Cluster 7
Will Alabama win at least 9 games this season
Will Alabama win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26ALA-9
Cluster 8
Will Nebraska win at least 9 games this season
Will Nebraska win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26NEB-9
Cluster 9
Will Tennessee win at least 9 games this season
Will Tennessee win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26TENN-9
Cluster 10
Will Michigan win at least 10 games this season
Will Michigan win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26MICH-10
Cluster 11
Will Oklahoma win at least 10 games this season
Will Oklahoma win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26OKLA-10
Cluster 12
Will Utah win at least 9 games this season
Will Utah win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26UTAH-9
Cluster 13
Will Tulane win at least 11 games this season
Will Tulane win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26TULN-11
Cluster 14
Will USC win at least 11 games this season
Will USC win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins
KXNCAAFWINS-26USC-11
Analysis
The 47% probability reflects a near-coin-flip assessment of whether Ohio State will achieve at least 12 wins during the 2026 college football season. This level suggests meaningful uncertainty about the team's performance trajectory. The probability is likely influenced by Ohio State's preseason roster composition, strength of schedule, and recent historical performance patterns. Key variables affecting this outcome include injury status to key players heading into the season, performance in non-conference games that establish baseline competitiveness, and results in Big Ten competition. The most significant near-term catalyst would be the team's performance through the first 4-5 games of the season, which would clarify actual competitive level versus preseason expectations and inform whether reaching 12 wins remains plausible or has become substantially more difficult.
- ›Ohio State's win-loss record through Week 5 of the season, which will indicate actual performance against stated competition level
- ›Cumulative injuries to offensive or defensive starters, as depth impacts ability to sustain 12-win pace across full schedule
- ›Performance in marquee non-conference games or early Big Ten matchups that test whether preseason projections are tracking
- ›Strength of schedule composition—specific opponents faced in months 2-3 of season that determine win-probability math for 12-win threshold
- ›Historical Ohio State program baseline (typical win totals under current coaching regime) versus market's implicit expectations
What moved the line
- Jul 216+ wins↓52pp56→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 246+ wins↑45pp17→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 225+ wins↓19pp42→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 255+ wins↓16pp87→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 245+ wins↑15pp22→37¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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