Will Duke be #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$236
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 14, 2027
115 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 18% of their title tokens — “Will Duke be the #” vs “Will Arizona be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Duke be the #
Will Duke be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W1RK2-DUKE
Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 4 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W4R1-DUKE
Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 5 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W5R1-DUKE
Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W6R1-DUKE
Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W8R1-DUKE
Cluster 2
Will Arizona be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week
Will Arizona be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings?: Arizona
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W8R1-ARIZ
Will Arizona be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 4 rankings?: Arizona
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W4R1-ARIZ
Will Arizona be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 5 rankings?: Arizona
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W5R1-ARIZ
Cluster 3
Will Michigan
Will Michigan be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings?: Michigan
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W8R1-MICH
Will Michigan be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 4 rankings?: Michigan
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W4R1-MICH
Will Michigan St. be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 5 rankings?: Michigan St.
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W5R1-MSU
Cluster 4
Will Arkansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week
Cluster 5
Will Houston be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week
Cluster 6
Will Illinois be the #3 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 7
Will Louisville be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings
Cluster 8
Will Iowa St. be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 4 rankings
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance Duke enters the 2026-27 college basketball season ranked first in the AP Poll's Week 1 preseason rankings. At 20%, markets suggest Duke is considered competitive but not favored for the top spot. The current assessment balances Duke's program strength and recent recruiting against uncertainty about roster construction and how voters will weight returning talent versus incoming players across all top programs. The Week 1 AP Poll, typically released in late October or early November before the season begins, will definitively resolve this outcome. Voter preferences for different programs and their interpretation of summer transfer portal activity will substantially influence where Duke lands relative to other blue-blood programs like Florida and Illinois, which show contract prices between 21-27 cents.
- ›Duke's roster composition for 2026-27, including any significant portal departures or high-impact transfers
- ›Comparative strength of returning rosters at traditional blue bloods and other programs that might compete for #1 ranking
- ›AP Poll voters' preseason preferences and historical biases toward certain programs or coaching tenures
- ›Performance and roster decisions by competitor programs like Florida, Illinois, and other traditional powerhouses
- ›Official release date and methodology of the Week 1 AP Poll, typically determined in early fall 2026
What moved the line
- Sep 19Illinois↓17pp24→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Illinois↓7pp31→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Duke↑5pp40→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Illinois↑4pp27→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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