Will Duke be #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$364
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 29, 2026
185 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Duke” vs “Will Illinois”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Duke
Will Duke be #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W1R1-DUKE
Will Duke be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W1RK2-DUKE
Will Duke be the #3 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBAPRANK-26W1R3-DUKE
Cluster 2
Will Illinois
Cluster 3
Will Michigan be the #3 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 4
Will Florida be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 5
Will UConn be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that Duke University will be ranked #1 in the AP Poll's first weekly college basketball rankings of the 2026-27 season. At 23%, Duke is considered a competitive but not favored contender for the top ranking. The preseason outlook depends primarily on how Duke's roster development progresses through spring and summer training, roster retention, and transfer portal activity relative to other traditional powerhouses. The AP Poll Week 1 rankings will be released in late October 2026 following the start of the college basketball season, which represents the key moment when this prediction resolves. Duke's path to #1 requires strong offseason performance metrics and favorable comparisons to other elite programs entering the season.
- ›Duke's roster composition after transfer portal activity closes and spring recruitment concludes, compared to traditional basketball powerhouses
- ›Quality and experience level of Duke's returning players, particularly at guard and forward positions critical to elite-level play
- ›Preseason consensus ranking from major sports publications and expert polls, which typically align closely with Week 1 AP rankings
- ›Recruitment and commitment of elite high school prospects through June-July 2026, affecting perceived depth and talent
- ›Performance of competing programs like Florida, Kansas, and other traditional contenders in the same evaluation period
What moved the line
- Jun 26Duke↑4pp34→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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