Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Nov 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets currently assess a 90% likelihood that the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act will become law by February 1, 2027. The NDAA is typically passed annually through the legislative process, though timing varies. The probability structure shows meaningful divergence in expected passage dates: only 26% confidence for passage by December 1, 2026, suggesting markets expect passage during the lame-duck session or early 2027. Key drivers include congressional calendar availability, any competing legislative priorities, and potential partisan disagreements over defense policy or related amendments. Historical precedent matters—Congress has passed the NDAA in each fiscal year since 1962, though occasionally with delays into the following year. The December 1, 2026 contract carries the highest trading volume, indicating active uncertainty about whether the bill clears before year-end.

• ›Historical track record: Congress has passed a defense authorization bill every fiscal year since 1962, establishing strong legislative precedent
• ›Contract price gradient: The 26% confidence for Dec 1 versus 90% for Feb 1 suggests markets expect passage during lame-duck or Q1 2027 rather than before year-end
• ›Congressional calendar: Availability of floor time in fall 2026 and willingness to prioritize NDAA over other legislation will materially affect passage timing
• ›Partisan disputes: Disagreements over specific amendments or policy riders unrelated to core defense authorization could delay final passage
• ›Fiscal deadline pressure: NDAA typically becomes law before fiscal year begins (October 1), but legislative slippage sometimes extends passage into following fiscal year

What moved the line

• Sep 24Before Dec 25, 2026↓40pp72→32¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 25Before Dec 25, 2026↓10pp32→22¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Before Dec 1, 2026↑6pp7→13¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 24Before Dec 1, 2026↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 23Before Dec 1, 2026↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds