Will NEAR trimmed mean be above $2.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 11% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $4.50
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Above $4.00
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$65
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
111 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will NEAR trimmed mean be above $4
Analysis
This market is asking whether NEAR Protocol's token will trade above $2.00 by year-end 2026, with traders currently assessing this outcome as slightly less likely than not at 45%. The probability reflects uncertainty about NEAR's competitive positioning in the Layer-1 blockchain ecosystem, its adoption metrics, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions over the next five months. Upward pressure would come from increased developer activity, partnership announcements, or positive performance relative to competing chains; downward pressure would stem from network congestion issues, market-wide crypto weakness, or loss of developer mindshare. The primary resolution factors include NEAR's actual transaction volume and validator economics through Q4 2026, along with macroeconomic conditions affecting risk asset valuations during that period.
- ›NEAR's trimmed mean price is currently below $2.00, requiring approximately 100%+ appreciation to resolve positively
- ›The contract pricing across multiple strike levels ($2.00-$4.00) shows relatively consistent probabilities, suggesting limited differentiation in trader conviction across price tiers
- ›Zero 24-hour volume across all tracked contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- ›NEAR's network fundamentals including validator participation rates, developer activity, and transaction throughput through Q4 2026 will directly impact investor confidence
- ›Cryptocurrency market correlation effects from macro trends, regulatory developments, and competing Layer-1 protocols are material to resolution
What moved the line
- Sep 8Above $4.00↓29pp32→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Above $4.00↑27pp7→34¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Above $4.50↑19pp11→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.