SimpleFunctions
5 source contracts·Kalshi 5·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 13, 2029 · 939d

New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 5 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

29%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

29%

5 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$13K

5 contracts

Closes

Feb 13, 2029

939 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 93% (27 days, 27 points)Aggregate: 93% on 2026-07-21
Aggregate of 5 contracts · 27d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 5 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will New England win” vs “Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Analysis

This 29% probability reflects market expectations that New England will defeat Charlotte in their upcoming matchup. The relatively modest odds suggest the market views this as a competitive contest rather than a heavily favored outcome. Key drivers include New England's recent performance trajectory, roster composition, and head coaching stability under Mike Vrabel, balanced against Charlotte's competitive standing. The probability could shift based on injury reports, betting line movements from sportsbooks, or pre-game team announcements in the days leading up to kickoff. Resolution will occur on the scheduled game date when the final score is determined.

  • New England's win-loss record and recent form heading into the matchup
  • Roster health status and availability of key players for both teams
  • Mike Vrabel's coaching effectiveness in his inaugural season with New England
  • Charlotte's offensive and defensive performance metrics relative to New England's
  • Historical head-to-head records and situational factors like home-field advantage

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.