New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
5 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
939 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will New England win” vs “Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New England win
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Cluster 2
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Cluster 3
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Stays with New England or Retires
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-NE
Analysis
This 29% probability reflects market expectations that New England will defeat Charlotte in their upcoming matchup. The relatively modest odds suggest the market views this as a competitive contest rather than a heavily favored outcome. Key drivers include New England's recent performance trajectory, roster composition, and head coaching stability under Mike Vrabel, balanced against Charlotte's competitive standing. The probability could shift based on injury reports, betting line movements from sportsbooks, or pre-game team announcements in the days leading up to kickoff. Resolution will occur on the scheduled game date when the final score is determined.
- ›New England's win-loss record and recent form heading into the matchup
- ›Roster health status and availability of key players for both teams
- ›Mike Vrabel's coaching effectiveness in his inaugural season with New England
- ›Charlotte's offensive and defensive performance metrics relative to New England's
- ›Historical head-to-head records and situational factors like home-field advantage
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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