New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 30%, Polymarket at 25% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
12 contracts
Polymarket
25%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$25K
20 contracts
Closes
May 2, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 30¢ · Polymarket 25¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (25¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (30¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
11 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will New England
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Will New England have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: New England
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-NE
Cluster 2
New England vs Philadelphia Winner
Cluster 3
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Cluster 4
What will
Cluster 5
IR Iran vs. New Zealand
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand
0x4d3228…c26d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran
0xe70fd5…d9d4
Cluster 6
England vs. Croatia
England vs. Croatia: Croatia
0x90b9d2…4b13
England vs. Croatia: England
0xb361c2…e8e9
Cluster 7
NFL Champion 2027: New England Patriots
NFL Champion 2027: New England Patriots
0x813384…d3c4
Cluster 8
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: New England Patriots
0xc1e897…df27
Cluster 9
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots
0xe97020…aa73
Cluster 10
Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium: New England
Buffalo's 1st Opponent at Highmark Stadium: New England
KX1STHOMEGAME-BUF26-NE
Cluster 11
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: New England Revolution
0x162c28…b850
What moved the line
- Apr 28New England Revolution↑50pp0→50¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28New England Patriots↑33pp6→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots↓21pp39→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Philadelphia↑17pp20→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots↓9pp48→39¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.