New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 52%, Polymarket at 35% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
9 contracts
Polymarket
35%
11 contracts
Cross-venue gap
17pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$317K
20 contracts
Closes
May 2, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 52¢ · Polymarket 35¢ · 17pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (35¢, 11 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (52¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets” vs “Baltimore vs New York Y”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
0xe4ead2…9aca
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-1.5)
0x52ecc5…1539
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3b1359…c2a6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfb53dd…2bf6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x087e96…4031
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-2.5)
0x749d60…214e
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)
0x8cd527…d5dd
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x361d08…fcba
Cluster 2
Baltimore vs New York Y
Baltimore vs New York Y Winner?: New York Y
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY
Baltimore vs New York Y Winner?: Baltimore
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031335BALNYY-BAL
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-9
Baltimore vs New York Y First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031335BALNYY
Baltimore vs New York Y Winner?: New York Y
KXMLBGAME-26MAY041905BALNYY-NYY
Cluster 3
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Cluster 4
NFL Champion 2027: New England Patriots
NFL Champion 2027: New England Patriots
0x813384…d3c4
Cluster 5
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Cluster 6
What will be A.J. Brown's next team
What will be A.J. Brown's next team?: New England
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26ABROWN-NE
Cluster 7
New England vs Philadelphia Winner
New England vs Philadelphia Winner?: Philadelphia
KXMLSGAME-26MAY09NEPHI-PHI
Cluster 8
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: New England Revolution
0x162c28…b850
What moved the line
- Apr 28New England Revolution↑50pp0→50¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28New England Patriots↑33pp6→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Philadelphia↑17pp20→37¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Mike Vrabel↑8pp68→76¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Mike Vrabel↓7pp71→64¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.