New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
2 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
966 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship” vs “Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Cluster 2
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Analysis
This 37% probability represents the combined likelihood that New England Revolution will win their next match against Charlotte FC based on aggregated market data. The significant 54-percentage-point gap between venues suggests disagreement about either team fundamentals or upcoming roster changes. The New England markets are heavily influenced by speculation about player movements—particularly A.J. Brown's next team and managerial decisions—which adds noise to the pure match outcome signal. The match itself would resolve this uncertainty, though the markets may continue repricing based on team news, injuries, or confirmed transfers before kickoff. Bettors should note that related contracts on adjacent topics (like head coach assignments) may be conflating different resolution criteria with the actual game result.
- ›Kalshi's contracts average 58% for New England outcomes versus Polymarket's 4%, indicating methodological or information differences between venues rather than consensus market belief
- ›A.J. Brown's next team contract (85¢ on Kalshi with $7,549 daily volume) dominates trading activity and may be driving New England probability upward through association rather than match-specific factors
- ›The match outcome itself has no confirmed date in the provided data; resolution timing and whether roster changes occur before kickoff will materially affect predictive value
- ›Polymarket's contracts show near-zero volume on Ronaldo speculation, suggesting low confidence or utility in that signal
- ›Three of five top contracts reference non-match outcomes (NFL championship, head coach, player transfers), creating potential for basis risk if match probability diverges from these correlated markets
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.