Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs
Leader sits at 57% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
John Waldron
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Marc Nachmann
Spread
54pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2035
3463 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 35% probability that John Waldron will be Goldman Sachs's next CEO, based on aggregated trading across prediction contracts. Waldron, the bank's current President and Chief Operating Officer, is positioned as the frontrunner, though significant uncertainty remains about the timing and eventual successor. The leadership transition probability reflects expectations about current CEO David Solomon's tenure and internal succession planning. Factors that would move this probability include announcements from Goldman's board regarding Solomon's future, changes in the bank's strategic direction, or signals about Waldron's health or career trajectory. The single largest catalyst would be an official statement from Goldman Sachs about CEO succession plans or a confirmation of Solomon's departure timeline.
- ›John Waldron holds the COO position, traditionally a pathway to CEO succession at major financial institutions
- ›David Solomon's tenure as CEO and any public statements about his planned duration or retirement timeline
- ›Board composition and publicly reported succession planning discussions at Goldman Sachs
- ›Relative compensation, promotion visibility, and retention of other internal executive candidates competing for the role
- ›Market conditions and Goldman's operational performance, which typically influence board decisions about leadership continuity
What moved the line
- Jul 2John Waldron↓6pp64→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 1John Waldron↑5pp59→64¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (57% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.