What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team
Leader sits at 31% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Minnesota
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Los Angeles D
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Mar 25, 2027
269 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will
What will be Tarik Skubal's next team?: Milwaukee
KXNEXTTEAMMLB-27TSKUBAL-MIL
What will be Tarik Skubal's next team?: Los Angeles D
KXNEXTTEAMMLB-27TSKUBAL-LAD
What will be Tarik Skubal's next team?: New York Y
KXNEXTTEAMMLB-27TSKUBAL-NYY
What will be Joe Ryan's next team?: Minnesota
KXNEXTTEAMMLB-27JRYAN-MIN
Analysis
This represents traders' estimate that Seattle will be Aroldis Chapman's next team, currently at 5% probability. Chapman, the veteran left-handed reliever, remains free to sign with any MLB franchise. The low probability reflects either limited market interest, competing offers from other teams, or Chapman's selective preferences regarding destination. Key drivers moving this probability up would include public reports of Seattle's negotiating interest or Chapman's stated preference for the Pacific Northwest. Movement downward could result from Chapman signing elsewhere or announcing intentions to join a different organization. The primary uncertainty resolver will be Chapman's actual signing announcement, which typically occurs during the offseason or early spring training period, though timing remains unpredictable. Until that point, market pricing reflects the perceived likelihood relative to other destination outcomes across all available contracting combinations.
- ›Chapman's current free-agent status and active market interest from multiple teams
- ›Historical patterns of Chapman's team choices and any publicly reported preference signals
- ›Competitive offers from other franchises and their relative probability weightings
- ›Timing of free-agent signings, which typically occur in waves rather than predictably
- ›Market volume and contract activity on this specific outcome relative to other player destinations
What moved the line
- Jun 24Minnesota↓22pp48→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Los Angeles D↓9pp24→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Los Angeles D↑9pp15→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Milwaukee↓8pp17→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Minnesota↑7pp40→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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