SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 12 outcomes12 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Dec 31, 2026 · 242d3pp · 10h

What will be David Njoku's next team

Leader sits at 81% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

81%

New England

runner-up 68¢leader 81¢

Outcomes

12

winner-take-all

Runner-up

68¢

Stays with Las Vegas or Reti

Spread

13pp

contested

24h volume

$13K

liquid

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

242 days

Venue

Kalshi

12 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayNew England: 80% (26 days, 26 points)New England: 80% on 2026-05-03Stays with Las Vegas or Retires: 69% (26 days, 25 points)Stays with Las Vegas or Retires: 69% on 2026-05-03Kansas City: 34% (26 days, 20 points)Kansas City: 34% on 2026-05-03
New England80¢Stays with Las Vegas or Retires69¢Kansas City34¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 26d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that David Njoku will play for the Los Angeles Chargers as his next team. The 78% figure represents the highest-priced outcome among multiple competing destinations. Market pricing is influenced by contract availability, salary cap constraints across NFL teams, and Njoku's performance metrics entering the offseason. The primary resolution catalyst depends on the NFL's free-agency period and trade deadline windows, where team roster decisions and player movement typically occur. Shifts in this probability would follow explicit team statements about roster intentions, reported contract negotiations, or trades involving Njoku.

  • Los Angeles Chargers' salary cap capacity and stated roster priorities heading into the 2026 offseason
  • Njoku's contract status, injury history, and performance statistics compared to other available tight end options
  • Competing destinations' need at tight end and willingness to allocate resources to that position
  • Official team announcements, reported trade activity, or free-agency signings that narrow available options
  • Timing of NFL free agency and trade windows when actual team transitions are formalized

What moved the line

  • May 2Los Angeles C18pp220¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Los Angeles C13pp2033¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 27Kansas City13pp4734¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Baltimore13pp163¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 27New England7pp8376¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.