Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC East Division
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$74
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
214 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Cluster 2
Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC East Division
Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: Buffalo
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-BUF
Cluster 3
Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC East Division
Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: Miami
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-MIA
Cluster 4
Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC East Division
Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New York J
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NYJ
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that the New York Jets finish first in the AFC East division during the 2026 NFL season. At 31%, it suggests the Jets are considered competitive but not favorites for the division title. The probability is influenced by roster composition, recent performance trends, and strength of schedule compared to division rivals like the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the NFL regular season from September through December 2026, where head-to-head performance against division opponents directly determines the final standings. Injuries to key players, coaching decisions, and trades before the September start would also meaningfully shift expectations.
- ›Jets' win-loss record against other AFC East teams during the 2026 regular season (Sep-Dec 2026) directly determines division outcome
- ›Quarterback performance and availability, particularly for the Jets' starting QB compared to division rivals' quarterbacks
- ›Off-season roster moves and free agent signings completed before the 2026 season begins
- ›Injury status of key offensive and defensive players heading into and during the regular season
- ›Head-to-head strength metrics including playoff experience and recent historical performance of the Jets versus Bills, Patriots, and Dolphins
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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