Will Micah Parsons win the Comeback Player of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$460
6 contracts
Closes
Feb 21, 2028
578 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Patrick Mahomes win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Patrick Mahomes win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Patrick Mahomes
KXNFLCPOTY-27-PMAHOMES15
Cluster 2
Will Kyler Murray win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Kyler Murray win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Kyler Murray
KXNFLCPOTY-27-KMURRAY1
Cluster 3
Will Tucker Kraft win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Tucker Kraft win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Tucker Kraft
KXNFLCPOTY-27-TKRAFT85
Cluster 4
Will Micah Parsons win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Micah Parsons win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Micah Parsons
KXNFLCPOTY-27-MPARSONS1
Cluster 5
Will Daniel Jones win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Daniel Jones win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Daniel Jones
KXNFLCPOTY-27-DJONES17
Cluster 6
Will Nick Bosa win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Nick Bosa win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Nick Bosa
KXNFLCPOTY-27-NBOSA97
Analysis
An 8% probability suggests roughly a 1-in-12 chance that Micah Parsons wins NFL Comeback Player of the Year for the 2026 season. The low probability reflects that Parsons has not publicly announced a significant injury or absence requiring a major comeback narrative—the award typically goes to players returning from serious injuries or extended time away. For this probability to move meaningfully higher, Parsons would need to either suffer a substantial injury during the 2026 season and return to form, or there would need to be unexpected circumstances creating a comeback storyline. The award winner will be determined by NFL voters after the regular season concludes in early January 2027. Market comparison shows Tucker Kraft (8¢) and Patrick Mahomes (33¢) trading at similar or higher levels, suggesting uncertainty about which player's narrative will dominate comeback discussions.
- ›Parsons' current health status and whether he sustains a season-altering injury during the 2026 NFL season
- ›The strength of competing comeback narratives, particularly Mahomes' injury recovery or Kraft's availability changes
- ›Trading volume remains minimal ($6 in 24h volume), indicating limited market confidence or interest in this specific outcome
- ›Historical CPOY voting patterns and whether defensive players are typically selected over offensive players in the same year
- ›Parsons' on-field performance metrics and statistical recovery rate if he does sustain and return from injury
What moved the line
- Jul 22Daniel Jones↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026last 90% · 0d
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 2d
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 4d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 7d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.