Will Micah Parsons win the Comeback Player of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
6 contracts
Closes
Feb 21, 2028
519 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Patrick Mahomes win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Patrick Mahomes win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Patrick Mahomes
KXNFLCPOTY-27-PMAHOMES15
Cluster 2
Will Fred Warner win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Fred Warner win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Fred Warner
KXNFLCPOTY-27-FWARNER54
Cluster 3
Will Malik Nabers win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Malik Nabers win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Malik Nabers
KXNFLCPOTY-27-MNABERS1
Cluster 4
Will Aaron Donald win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Aaron Donald win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Aaron Donald
KXNFLCPOTY-27-ADONALD99
Cluster 5
Will Kyler Murray win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Kyler Murray win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Kyler Murray
KXNFLCPOTY-27-KMURRAY1
Cluster 6
Will Daniel Jones win the Comeback Player of the Year
Will Daniel Jones win the Comeback Player of the Year?: Daniel Jones
KXNFLCPOTY-27-DJONES17
Analysis
An 8% probability suggests roughly a 1-in-12 chance that Micah Parsons wins NFL Comeback Player of the Year for the 2026 season. The low probability reflects that Parsons has not publicly announced a significant injury or absence requiring a major comeback narrative—the award typically goes to players returning from serious injuries or extended time away. For this probability to move meaningfully higher, Parsons would need to either suffer a substantial injury during the 2026 season and return to form, or there would need to be unexpected circumstances creating a comeback storyline. The award winner will be determined by NFL voters after the regular season concludes in early January 2027. Market comparison shows Tucker Kraft (8¢) and Patrick Mahomes (33¢) trading at similar or higher levels, suggesting uncertainty about which player's narrative will dominate comeback discussions.
- ›Parsons' current health status and whether he sustains a season-altering injury during the 2026 NFL season
- ›The strength of competing comeback narratives, particularly Mahomes' injury recovery or Kraft's availability changes
- ›Trading volume remains minimal ($6 in 24h volume), indicating limited market confidence or interest in this specific outcome
- ›Historical CPOY voting patterns and whether defensive players are typically selected over offensive players in the same year
- ›Parsons' on-field performance metrics and statistical recovery rate if he does sustain and return from injury
What moved the line
- Sep 17Patrick Mahomes↑12pp36→48¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Kyler Murray↓9pp14→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Aaron Donald↓3pp4→1¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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