Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$144
6 contracts
Closes
May 15, 2027
280 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Cleveland
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-CLE
Cluster 2
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-MIA
Cluster 3
Will Tennessee make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Tennessee make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Tennessee
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-TEN
Cluster 4
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: New York J
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-NYJ
Cluster 5
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-ARI
Cluster 6
Will Green Bay make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Green Bay make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Green Bay
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-GB
Analysis
This market estimates a 6% probability that the New York Jets will receive the first overall pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft. The Jets typically only secure this pick by finishing with the worst record in the league during the 2026 season. The probability reflects the Jets' current roster construction and early-season expectations. Key factors include the Jets' performance through the 2026 regular season (which determines draft position through week 18), injuries to key players that could affect competitive balance, and the strength of schedule relative to other struggling teams. The primary resolution event is the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in early January 2027, when final standings determine draft order. Until then, the probability will likely fluctuate based on team performance, trade activity, and updated injury information that affects playoff contention across the league.
- ›Jets' win-loss record relative to other NFL teams through the 2026 season determines draft position
- ›Significant injuries to key roster players could either worsen or improve their competitive standing
- ›Trades or roster moves that materially change team strength around the deadline
- ›Strength of schedule analysis for remaining 2026 games relative to other bottom-standing teams
- ›Performance of other teams considered likely draft order competitors in early 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 5Miami↓8pp17→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Arizona↓8pp33→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Cleveland↓7pp13→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Miami↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Tennessee↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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