Who will be picked 7th in the Pro Football Draft
Leader sits at 31% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Arch Manning
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Dante Moore
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 22, 2027
285 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-AMAN
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSMI
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: CJ Carr
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-CCAR
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: LaNorris Sellers
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-LSEL
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSAY
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Dante Moore
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMOO
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Darian Mensah
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMEN
Analysis
The 32% probability indicates market participants view Arch Manning as the most likely selection for the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. This assessment reflects expectations about team needs, player performance during the college season, and draft evaluation consensus. The current level is driven by Manning's pedigree, perceived readiness for professional play, and the assumption that the team holding the top pick will prioritize quarterback prospects. Movement in this probability would depend primarily on how Manning's performance compares to other elite quarterback prospects during the 2026 college football season, as well as any signals from the team with the first pick about their draft strategy. The market will resolve when the NFL Draft concludes in spring 2027, at which point the actual selection will determine the outcome. Until then, uncertainty remains around competing quarterback prospects, team circumstances, and coaching staff preferences.
- ›Arch Manning's on-field production and decision-making accuracy during the 2026 college football season
- ›Comparative performance and NFL-readiness assessments of competing QBs like Dante Moore (15% current price) and CJ Carr (7%)
- ›The identity and stated needs of the team holding the first overall pick heading into spring 2027
- ›Any major injuries or statistical breakdowns by Manning or other top-tier quarterback prospects
- ›Changes in team draft priorities signaled through free agency, coaching hires, or public statements between now and April 2027
What moved the line
- Aug 5Darian Mensah↓5pp9→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Dante Moore↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Dante Moore↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Arch Manning↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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