Who will be picked 7th in the Pro Football Draft
Leader sits at 23% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Arch Manning
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Dante Moore
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSAY
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSMI
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Dante Moore
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMOO
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-AMAN
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: LaNorris Sellers
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-LSEL
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: CJ Carr
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-CCAR
What moved the line
- May 3Arch Manning↓14pp28→14¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Arch Manning↑10pp18→28¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Arch Manning↑9pp12→21¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Jeremiah Smith↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Arch Manning↓5pp23→18¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.