SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 13, 2029 · 964d

Will Francis Mauigoa be drafted by Los Angeles R

Leader sits at 55% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

55%

Los Angeles D

runner-up 29¢leader 55¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

29¢

Los Angeles D

Spread

26pp

contested

24h volume

$19K

liquid

Closes

Feb 13, 2029

964 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayLos Angeles D: 54% (30 days, 26 points)Los Angeles D: 54% on 2026-06-24Los Angeles D: 30% (30 days, 29 points)Los Angeles D: 30% on 2026-06-25Los Angeles R: 15% (30 days, 14 points)Los Angeles R: 15% on 2026-06-23
Los Angeles D54¢Los Angeles D30¢Los Angeles R15¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 30d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract estimates a 26% probability that Francis Mauigoa will be selected by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2026 NFL Draft. The market price reflects uncertainty about whether the Rams will prioritize Mauigoa among available defensive options in their draft class. Key drivers of the probability include Mauigoa's draft ranking relative to other prospects, the Rams' stated needs and draft strategy, and their current roster composition. The primary resolution event is the NFL Draft itself, scheduled for late April 2026, when the Rams will make their selections. Prior to draft day, movements in this contract would likely follow: updates to Mauigoa's evaluation metrics, reported Rams front office interest, mock drafts featuring Mauigoa to Los Angeles, and trades that alter the Rams' draft position or priorities. The relatively modest probability suggests market participants view other defensive prospects as more likely targets for the team at available draft slots.

  • Mauigoa's projected draft position versus the Rams' actual draft picks in 2026
  • Public reporting on Rams coaching staff and scouts' interest in Mauigoa specifically
  • Changes to Rams roster needs due to free agency signings or injuries before the draft
  • Mauigoa's performance metrics and any injuries affecting draft-day evaluations
  • Mock draft consensus and Rams draft history with similar prospect profiles

What moved the line

  • Jun 22Los Angeles D4pp4751¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 20Los Angeles D3pp5047¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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