SimpleFunctions
19 contractsKalshirefreshed 9 min ago

Will Francis Mauigoa be drafted by Los Angeles R

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

18%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

18%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$1.0M

19 contracts

Top contract

$579K · Kalshi

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 20% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 20% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 26d

Bracket families

7 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Los Angeles

7 contracts$44K

Cluster 2

Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election

3 contracts$175K

Cluster 3

Will Oklahoma City win 4

3 contracts$26K

Cluster 4

Will the Los Angeles L win the 2026 Pro Basketball

2 contracts$777K

Cluster 5

Will Luka Doncic play in a game for Los Angeles L before

2 contracts$10K

Cluster 6

Will San Antonio vs Los Angeles L be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Finals

1 contract$7K

Cluster 7

What will be David Njoku's next team

1 contract$5K

What moved the line

  • Apr 27Before Jun 20, 202630pp333¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 29Before May 7, 202620pp3313¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Los Angeles C18pp220¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Los Angeles D18pp4628¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 28Before Jun 20, 202617pp3350¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.