Will Francis Mauigoa be drafted by Los Angeles R
Leader sits at 55% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Los Angeles D
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Los Angeles D
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$19K
liquid
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
964 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles
Will Los Angeles R win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Los Angeles R
KXSB-27-LAR
Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Los Angeles D
KXMLB-26-LAD
Will Los Angeles C win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Los Angeles C
KXSB-27-LAC
Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Los Angeles D
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-LAD
Analysis
This contract estimates a 26% probability that Francis Mauigoa will be selected by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2026 NFL Draft. The market price reflects uncertainty about whether the Rams will prioritize Mauigoa among available defensive options in their draft class. Key drivers of the probability include Mauigoa's draft ranking relative to other prospects, the Rams' stated needs and draft strategy, and their current roster composition. The primary resolution event is the NFL Draft itself, scheduled for late April 2026, when the Rams will make their selections. Prior to draft day, movements in this contract would likely follow: updates to Mauigoa's evaluation metrics, reported Rams front office interest, mock drafts featuring Mauigoa to Los Angeles, and trades that alter the Rams' draft position or priorities. The relatively modest probability suggests market participants view other defensive prospects as more likely targets for the team at available draft slots.
- ›Mauigoa's projected draft position versus the Rams' actual draft picks in 2026
- ›Public reporting on Rams coaching staff and scouts' interest in Mauigoa specifically
- ›Changes to Rams roster needs due to free agency signings or injuries before the draft
- ›Mauigoa's performance metrics and any injuries affecting draft-day evaluations
- ›Mock draft consensus and Rams draft history with similar prospect profiles
What moved the line
- Jun 22Los Angeles D↑4pp47→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Los Angeles D↓3pp50→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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