Will Miami draft a quarterback in Rounds 1, 2, or 3
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$89K
17 contracts
Top contract
10¢
$42K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will the high temp in miami
Will the **high temp in Miami** be 79-80° on May 3, 2026?: 79° to 80°
KXHIGHMIA-26MAY03-B79.5
Will the **high temp in Miami** be 83-84° on May 3, 2026?: 83° to 84°
KXHIGHMIA-26MAY03-B83.5
Will the **high temp in Miami** be 85-86° on May 3, 2026?: 85° to 86°
KXHIGHMIA-26MAY03-B85.5
Will the **high temp in Miami** be 81-82° on May 3, 2026?: 81° to 82°
KXHIGHMIA-26MAY03-B81.5
Cluster 2
Will Miami
Will Miami be the 2026 NL East Division Winner: Miami
KXMLBNLEAST-26-MIA
Will Miami be awarded with a top 3 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Miami
KXNBALOTTERY-26T3-MIA
Will Miami be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Miami
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-MIA
Cluster 3
Who will be picked
Cluster 4
Will the Miami Grand Prix be postponed or canceled due to weather
Cluster 5
Will Miami Heretics win the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match
Will Miami Heretics win the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODGAME-26MAY031630G2MMH-MH
Cluster 6
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 7
Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship
Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAF-27-MIA
Cluster 8
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Atlanta
KXNBATOPPICK-26-ATL
Cluster 9
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-MIA
Cluster 10
Will Malik Willis be Quarterback for Miami in Week 1
Will Malik Willis be Quarterback for Miami in Week 1?: Malik Willis
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-MIA-MWIL
Cluster 11
Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC East Division
Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: Miami
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-MIA
What moved the line
- May 3Patrick Mahomes↑26pp35→61¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Patrick Mahomes↓25pp38→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 383° to 84°↑12pp29→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 381° to 82°↓12pp31→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 385° to 86°↑11pp14→25¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.