Will Miami draft a quarterback in Rounds 1, 2, or 3
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$917
5 contracts
Closes
May 22, 2027
333 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship” vs “Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship
Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAF-27-MIA
Cluster 2
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-MIA
Cluster 3
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Cluster 4
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 5
Will Malik Willis be Quarterback for Miami in Week 1
Will Malik Willis be Quarterback for Miami in Week 1?: Malik Willis
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-MIA-MWIL
Analysis
This probability reflects the chances Miami selects a quarterback in the first three rounds of the 2027 NFL Draft. At 25%, it suggests the market views quarterback selection as possible but not the primary need. The main drivers are Miami's current quarterback depth chart and draft capital position. If Miami's existing signal-callers underperform significantly in 2026, draft interest could rise; conversely, a strong quarterback performance would lower it. The resolution comes at the 2027 NFL Draft in April 2027, but meaningful signals will emerge during the 2026 NFL season as the team's performance and front office messaging clarify their true needs and priorities.
- ›Miami's 2026 regular season performance and quarterback performance will directly inform whether the team prioritizes a QB replacement in 2027
- ›The team's draft capital entering 2027 matters—teams with early picks are more likely to address quarterback, while later picks often target other positions
- ›Trade activity before the draft could shift Miami's available picks and their ability to reach specific quarterback prospects in rounds 1-3
- ›Public statements from Miami's head coach and general manager throughout 2026 will signal organizational confidence or concerns about the current QB room
- ›The strength and timing of the 2027 quarterback prospect class relative to other draft needs will influence whether a QB selection makes sense in rounds 1-3 versus later rounds
What moved the line
- Jun 16Malik Willis↓9pp86→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Patrick Mahomes↑6pp45→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Patrick Mahomes↑5pp54→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Malik Willis↑4pp77→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Malik Willis↓4pp81→77¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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