CeeDee Lamb scores more fantasy points than Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 2026-27 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2027
127 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Trey McBride scores more fantasy points than Brock Bowers in the 2026-27 regular season: Trey McBride
Cluster 2
Jonathan Taylor scores more fantasy points than Christian McCaffrey in the 2026-27 regular season: Jonathan Taylor
Cluster 3
Caleb Williams scores more fantasy points than Drake Maye in the 2026-27 regular season: Caleb Williams
Cluster 4
Christian McCaffrey scores more fantasy points than Jonathan Taylor in the 2026-27 regular season: Christian McCaffrey
Cluster 5
Drake Maye scores more fantasy points than Caleb Williams in the 2026-27 regular season: Drake Maye
Cluster 6
Saquon Barkley scores more fantasy points than Derrick Henry in the 2026-27 regular season: Saquon Barkley
Cluster 7
Jahmyr Gibbs scores more fantasy points than Bijan Robinson in the 2026-27 regular season: Jahmyr Gibbs
Cluster 8
Lamar Jackson scores more fantasy points than Josh Allen in the 2026-27 regular season: Lamar Jackson
Cluster 9
Jaylen Waddle scores more fantasy points than DeVonta Smith in the 2026-27 regular season: Jaylen Waddle
Cluster 10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores more fantasy points than Puka Nacua in the 2026-27 regular season: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Cluster 11
Matthew Stafford scores more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes in the 2026-27 regular season: Matthew Stafford
Cluster 12
Jalen Hurts scores more fantasy points than Jayden Daniels in the 2026-27 regular season: Jalen Hurts
Cluster 13
Patrick Mahomes scores more fantasy points than Matthew Stafford in the 2026-27 regular season: Patrick Mahomes
Cluster 14
Brock Bowers scores more fantasy points than Trey McBride in the 2026-27 regular season: Brock Bowers
Cluster 15
Luther Burden III scores more fantasy points than DJ Moore in the 2026-27 regular season: Luther Burden III
Cluster 16
Amon-Ra St. Brown scores more fantasy points than CeeDee Lamb in the 2026-27 regular season: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Cluster 17
CeeDee Lamb scores more fantasy points than Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 2026-27 regular season: CeeDee Lamb
Cluster 18
Drake London scores more fantasy points than A.J. Brown in the 2026-27 regular season: Drake London
Cluster 19
DJ Moore scores more fantasy points than Luther Burden III in the 2026-27 regular season: DJ Moore
Analysis
This probability indicates a 42% chance that CeeDee Lamb finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with more fantasy points than Amon-Ra St. Brown. The market currently favors St. Brown slightly, reflected in the 50¢ contract price on the inverse outcome. Lamb's probability is shaped by his role in the Dallas Cowboys' offense and his historical scoring consistency, while St. Brown's slight edge reflects his high target volume and red-zone involvement with the Detroit Lions. The resolution depends entirely on comparative performance across the full 17-game regular season, making mid-season injury status and team offensive efficiency critical factors. The probability will shift based on actual production through the season, with early-season performance establishing baselines and trades or injuries potentially creating significant swings in either direction.
- ›Target share trends: Lamb's average targets per game versus St. Brown's target volume in their respective offenses through the season
- ›Scoring efficiency: Red zone opportunity frequency and touchdown conversion rates for each player relative to their baseline expectations
- ›Injury status and availability: Any significant injuries to either player or their primary quarterbacks affecting offensive production
- ›Team offensive performance: Changes in Cowboys and Lions scoring pace, pace-of-play, or offensive coordinator adjustments that affect receiver workload
- ›Bye week timing and strength of schedule: Opponent defenses faced in critical weeks may differentially impact final point totals
What moved the line
- Sep 9Brock Bowers↓27pp53→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Caleb Williams↓25pp35→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Drake Maye↓25pp53→28¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Drake London↑15pp50→65¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9Trey McBride↑14pp45→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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