2026-27 Championship Game Matchup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$768
9 contracts
Closes
Feb 21, 2027
196 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
2026-27 Championship Game Matchup
2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Cincinnati vs San Francisco: Cincinnati vs San Francisco
KXNFLMATCHUP-27SB-CINSF
2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Buffalo vs Los Angeles R: Buffalo vs Los Angeles R
KXNFLMATCHUP-27SB-BUFLAR
2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R
KXNFLMATCHUP-27SB-KCLAR
2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Los Angeles C vs Los Angeles R: Los Angeles C vs Los Angeles R
KXNFLMATCHUP-27SB-LACLAR
2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: New England vs Los Angeles R: New England vs Los Angeles R
KXNFLMATCHUP-27SB-NELAR
2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Baltimore vs Dallas: Baltimore vs Dallas
KXNFLMATCHUP-27SB-BALDAL
Cluster 2
2026-27 AFC Championship Matchup
2026-27 AFC Championship Matchup: Buffalo vs Jacksonville: Buffalo vs Jacksonville
KXNFLMATCHUP-27AFC-BUFJAC
2026-27 AFC Championship Matchup: Cincinnati vs Denver: Cincinnati vs Denver
KXNFLMATCHUP-27AFC-CINDEN
2026-27 AFC Championship Matchup: Buffalo vs Los Angeles C: Buffalo vs Los Angeles C
KXNFLMATCHUP-27AFC-BUFLAC
Analysis
This 39% probability represents the likelihood that two Los Angeles teams will face each other in the 2026-27 championship game. The market is pricing this outcome based on the current strength of Los Angeles teams relative to other AFC and NFC contenders. The probability would move higher if Los Angeles teams dominate their conferences through the regular season and playoffs, or lower if teams like Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, or New Orleans emerge as stronger threats. The primary uncertainty will resolve through the 2026-27 NFL season and playoffs, concluding with the championship game scheduled for early 2027.
- ›Contract pricing shows 4¢ for LA vs LA versus 50¢ for Denver vs San Francisco, indicating the LA matchup is viewed as substantially less likely than other top scenarios
- ›Los Angeles Chargers and Rams would need to each win their respective conference championships, requiring them to outperform current AFC and NFC favorites
- ›Trading volume on the LA vs LA contract ($119 in 24h) is significantly higher than Buffalo vs LA ($5), suggesting more confidence in that matchup's relevance
- ›The NFC Championship contract between New Orleans and Seattle is priced at 95¢, indicating extremely low probability for that specific matchup
- ›Regular season performance from late 2026 through January 2027 playoffs will be the primary driver of movement in this probability
What moved the line
- Aug 9Cincinnati vs Denver: Cincinnati vs Denver↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Buffalo vs Los Angeles C: Buffalo vs Los Angeles C↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Kansas City vs Los Angeles R: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Kansas City vs Los Angeles R: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R↓4pp7→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Los Angeles C vs Los Angeles R: Los Angeles C vs Los Angeles R↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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