Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
11 contracts
Closes
Feb 12, 2028
644 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Caleb Williams win the MVP
Will Caleb Williams win the MVP?: Caleb Williams
KXNFLMVP-27-CWIL
Cluster 2
Will Justin Herbert win the MVP
Will Justin Herbert win the MVP?: Justin Herbert
KXNFLMVP-27-JHER
Cluster 3
Will Dak Prescott win the MVP
Will Dak Prescott win the MVP?: Dak Prescott
KXNFLMVP-27-DPRE
Cluster 4
Will Jordan Love win the MVP
Will Jordan Love win the MVP?: Jordan Love
KXNFLMVP-27-JLOV
Cluster 5
Will Jayden Daniels win the MVP
Will Jayden Daniels win the MVP?: Jayden Daniels
KXNFLMVP-27-JDAN
Cluster 6
Will Drake Maye win the MVP
Will Drake Maye win the MVP?: Drake Maye
KXNFLMVP-27-DMAY
Cluster 7
Will Patrick Mahomes win the MVP
Will Patrick Mahomes win the MVP?: Patrick Mahomes
KXNFLMVP-27-PMAH
Cluster 8
Will Trevor Lawrence win the MVP
Will Trevor Lawrence win the MVP?: Trevor Lawrence
KXNFLMVP-27-TLAR
Cluster 9
Will Josh Allen win the MVP
Will Josh Allen win the MVP?: Josh Allen
KXNFLMVP-27-JALL
Cluster 10
Will Joe Burrow win the MVP
Will Joe Burrow win the MVP?: Joe Burrow
KXNFLMVP-27-JBUR
Cluster 11
Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP
Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP?: Lamar Jackson
KXNFLMVP-27-LJAC
Analysis
The 5% probability reflects the current market assessment that Lamar Jackson has a minimal chance of winning the 2026 NFL MVP award. This low probability suggests the market expects other quarterbacks—particularly Joe Burrow at 8%—to have stronger seasons or more compelling narratives. MVP voting typically rewards statistical excellence combined with team success and media narrative; Jackson's chances would rise with exceptional passing efficiency, volume statistics, or significant team wins, and would fall if other elite performances emerge across the league. The primary catalyst determining this outcome will be the full 2026 NFL season performance from September through December, with the award announcement typically occurring in early 2027 during NFL awards presentations. Since we are currently in May 2026, substantial uncertainty remains about who will perform best across the entire season.
- ›Joe Burrow commands 8% probability compared to Jackson's 5%, suggesting market consensus favors Burrow's MVP chances based on current expectations or recent performance
- ›The MVP award typically goes to a player with top-5 league-wide statistics in key metrics (passing yards, touchdowns, QB rating, passer rating) combined with strong team record
- ›Jackson would need elite statistical production across the full 16-game season plus a compelling narrative advantage over other elite performers to overcome current market pricing
- ›Contract volumes and pricing differences across MVP candidates reflect available information about roster construction, preseason performance, and injury status as of May 2026
- ›The outcome depends entirely on aggregate performance data from the 2026 NFL regular season (September-December), making current probabilities highly provisional given the temporal distance
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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