Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$46K
10 contracts
Closes
Feb 12, 2028
537 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Dak Prescott win the MVP
Will Dak Prescott win the MVP?: Dak Prescott
KXNFLMVP-27-DPRE
Cluster 2
Will Joe Burrow win the MVP
Will Joe Burrow win the MVP?: Joe Burrow
KXNFLMVP-27-JBUR
Cluster 3
Will Jordan Love win the MVP
Will Jordan Love win the MVP?: Jordan Love
KXNFLMVP-27-JLOV
Cluster 4
Will Brock Purdy win the MVP
Will Brock Purdy win the MVP?: Brock Purdy
KXNFLMVP-27-BPUR
Cluster 5
Will Josh Allen win the MVP
Will Josh Allen win the MVP?: Josh Allen
KXNFLMVP-27-JALL
Cluster 6
Will Matthew Stafford win the MVP
Will Matthew Stafford win the MVP?: Matthew Stafford
KXNFLMVP-27-MSTA
Cluster 7
Will Caleb Williams win the MVP
Will Caleb Williams win the MVP?: Caleb Williams
KXNFLMVP-27-CWIL
Cluster 8
Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP
Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP?: Lamar Jackson
KXNFLMVP-27-LJAC
Cluster 9
Will Justin Herbert win the MVP
Will Justin Herbert win the MVP?: Justin Herbert
KXNFLMVP-27-JHER
Cluster 10
Will Drake Maye win the MVP
Will Drake Maye win the MVP?: Drake Maye
KXNFLMVP-27-DMAY
Analysis
This 6% probability represents market expectation that Lamar Jackson will win the 2026 NFL MVP award. The market reflects competition from other strong quarterback prospects, particularly second-year standouts like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye who command similar odds, alongside established performers like Jordan Love and Brock Purdy. Jackson's MVP chances would increase if he demonstrates exceptional statistical performance through the regular season or if other leading candidates underperform due to injury or decline. The probability will be clarified through the 2026 NFL regular season (approximately September 2026 through early January 2027), with voting occurring after Week 17 to determine the final award winner. Market odds will shift substantially based on weekly performance, cumulative statistics, and injury developments for all top contenders.
- ›Jackson's statistical performance relative to other quarterbacks through 17 regular season games, particularly in yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage
- ›Injury status of Jackson and competing candidates throughout the 2026 season, as absences significantly reduce MVP eligibility
- ›Team wins and playoff positioning, as voters historically favor players on successful franchises
- ›Narrative momentum in national media coverage, which influences voter perception in close statistical competitions
- ›Historical voting patterns showing most MVP awards go to top-3 statistical performers, making raw performance metrics a primary driver
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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