Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$515
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 8, 2028
594 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Justin Jefferson win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Justin Jefferson win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Justin Jefferson
KXNFLOPOTY-27-JJEF
Cluster 2
Will Puka Nacua win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Puka Nacua win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Puka Nacua
KXNFLOPOTY-27-PNAC
Cluster 3
Will Jonathan Taylor win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Jonathan Taylor win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Jonathan Taylor
KXNFLOPOTY-27-JTAY
Cluster 4
Will Bijan Robinson win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Bijan Robinson win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Bijan Robinson
KXNFLOPOTY-27-BROB
Cluster 5
Will Ashton Jeanty win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Ashton Jeanty win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Ashton Jeanty
KXNFLOPOTY-27-AJEA
Cluster 6
Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Christian McCaffrey
KXNFLOPOTY-27-CMCC
Cluster 7
Will Derrick Henry win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Derrick Henry win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Derrick Henry
KXNFLOPOTY-27-DHEN
Analysis
The 5% probability reflects market expectations that Christian McCaffrey will not win NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2026. This low probability suggests traders believe other players are substantially more likely to claim the award. The current level likely reflects McCaffrey's performance through early May, including any injuries, statistics accumulated, or role changes on his team. The probability would increase if McCaffrey puts up elite statistical numbers in upcoming games or if other top candidates underperform. The key catalyst for resolution will be the NFL season's final games in December, followed by voting and the award announcement, typically in February 2027. Until then, weekly performance updates, injury reports, and trades could shift expectations meaningfully.
- ›McCaffrey's statistical performance (rushing yards, touchdowns, receptions) through the remainder of 2026 relative to other elite offensive players
- ›Injury status and availability—any significant injuries would likely reduce his award chances substantially
- ›Competition from other star offensive players (quarterbacks, receivers, running backs) and their respective performance levels
- ›Team success and media narratives around individual vs. team accomplishments, which influence voting patterns for individual awards
- ›Volume of trading activity and contract pricing on related markets suggesting relative confidence in competing candidates
What moved the line
- Jun 20Puka Nacua↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Puka Nacua↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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