Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
8 contracts
Closes
Feb 8, 2028
507 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Josh Allen win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Josh Allen win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Josh Allen
KXNFLOPOTY-27-JALL
Cluster 2
Will Bijan Robinson win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Bijan Robinson win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Bijan Robinson
KXNFLOPOTY-27-BROB
Cluster 3
Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Jahmyr Gibbs
KXNFLOPOTY-27-JGIB
Cluster 4
Will Kenneth Walker win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Kenneth Walker win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Kenneth Walker
KXNFLOPOTY-27-KWALKER9
Cluster 5
Will Derrick Henry win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Derrick Henry win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Derrick Henry
KXNFLOPOTY-27-DHEN
Cluster 6
Will Justin Jefferson win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Justin Jefferson win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Justin Jefferson
KXNFLOPOTY-27-JJEF
Cluster 7
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Amon-Ra St. Brown
KXNFLOPOTY-27-ASTB
Cluster 8
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
KXNFLOPOTY-27-JSMI
Analysis
This 6% probability indicates traders assess Christian McCaffrey has roughly a 1-in-17 chance of winning NFL Offensive Player of the Year for the 2026 season. The low probability reflects McCaffrey's competition from multiple elite offensive performers, particularly running backs Bijan Robinson (10¢) and Jahmyr Gibbs (12¢), who command higher market prices. McCaffrey's award probability would likely increase if he leads the league in rushing yards, receiving yards, or total touchdowns, or decrease if injuries limit his playing time or if other skill players significantly outperform him statistically. The resolution depends on final 2026 NFL regular season statistics, typically announced in early 2027 when award voting concludes. Historical OPOY voting often favors players with league-leading statistical categories and high touchdown production.
- ›McCaffrey's statistical ranking compared to Robinson, Gibbs, and other elite offensive skill position players in yards and touchdowns during the 2026 season
- ›Injury status and games played, as OPOY voters typically weight availability and durability when comparing candidates
- ›Whether McCaffrey accumulates league-leading totals in any major offensive category (rushing yards, receiving yards, total TDs)
- ›Competition intensity from running back peers, as RB-dominated OPOY outcomes require significantly higher per-game production than other positions
- ›Red zone touches and touchdown conversion rate relative to other top offensive performers
What moved the line
- Sep 18Bijan Robinson↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Jaxon Smith-Njigba↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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