Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$57K
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
522 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLOROTY-27-JPRI
Cluster 2
Will Denzel Boston win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Denzel Boston win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Denzel Boston
KXNFLOROTY-27-DBOS
Cluster 3
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jeremiyah Love
KXNFLOROTY-27-JLOV
Cluster 4
Will Jonah Coleman win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jonah Coleman win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jonah Coleman
KXNFLOROTY-27-JCOL
Cluster 5
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLOROTY-27-FMEN
Cluster 6
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion
KXNFLOROTY-27-KCON
Cluster 7
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate
KXNFLOROTY-27-CTAT
Analysis
Jadarian Price has an 8% probability of winning the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award, based on aggregated betting data from Kalshi markets. This reflects the market's assessment that Price is a mid-tier candidate among 2026 rookie offensive players. The probability is primarily influenced by Price's statistical performance through the 2026 season compared to other rookies, his team's offensive system and playing time allocation, and voter preference patterns in previous years. The award will be formally decided in early 2027 when voters cast ballots based on the complete regular season record. Key variables include whether Price maintains consistent production through December, how his stats compare to frontrunners like Fernando Mendoza (currently priced higher at 12%), and whether injuries to competing rookies or Price himself affect their relative candidacy. The market pricing suggests Price is viewed as having meaningful but limited chances relative to the field.
- ›Price's cumulative statistics through the 2026 regular season will be the primary determining factor, with volume metrics (receptions, yards, touchdowns) directly comparable to competing rookies
- ›Playing time availability and team offensive scheme utilization determine Price's statistical ceiling—reduced snap counts or offensive changes would lower his chances
- ›Fernando Mendoza and other higher-priced candidates currently have better market positioning, implying they have performed more strongly through August 2026
- ›The voting patterns and specific criteria used by award voters may favor certain statistical categories or narrative elements that could advantage or disadvantage Price relative to raw numbers
- ›Injuries to Price or competing rookies could materially shift probabilities if they affect availability for the final stretch of the season
What moved the line
- Sep 17Jeremiyah Love↑8pp14→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Jadarian Price↑5pp12→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Jadarian Price↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Jadarian Price↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Jeremiyah Love↓3pp22→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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