SimpleFunctions
8 source contracts·Kalshi 8·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 28, 2028 · 613d

Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 8 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

12%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

12%

8 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$2K

8 contracts

Closes

Feb 28, 2028

613 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 10% (18 days, 18 points)Aggregate: 10% on 2026-06-24
Aggregate of 8 contracts · 18d

Bracket families

8 clusters across 8 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$734

Cluster 2

Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$557

Cluster 3

Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$258

Cluster 4

Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$235

Cluster 5

Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$226

Cluster 6

Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$134

Cluster 7

Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$83

Cluster 8

Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$71

Analysis

This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Jadarian Price has a relatively modest chance of winning the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Price's current market price of 11 cents places him fourth among tracked candidates, well behind Fernando Mendoza at 24 cents but close to Jordyn Tyson at 12 cents. The probability is shaped primarily by Price's statistical performance relative to other rookie offensive players and his opportunity level within his team's offensive scheme. As the 2026 NFL season progresses through the fall, playing time, production metrics, and comparative performance against other rookie contenders will drive this probability up or down. The award itself will be determined in early 2027 based on the full regular season record, making ongoing weekly performance data the key driver of market movements.

  • Price's actual playing time and snap count compared to other top rookie offensive candidates through the season
  • His offensive statistics (passing yards, touchdowns, rushing performance depending on position) relative to Mendoza, Beck, Lemon, and Tyson
  • Team offensive scheme changes, injuries to starters, or coaching decisions that affect Price's role and opportunities
  • Market volume and trading patterns show Mendoza at 24 cents commands significantly higher confidence, indicating Price faces structured competition
  • The award voting typically rewards peak statistical performance in either passing or rushing categories, making efficiency metrics critical to Price's case

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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