Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−5pp
14h ago
24h volume
$3K
15 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
666 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Chris B” vs “Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Chris B
Cluster 2
Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carson Beck
KXNFLOROTY-27-CBEC
Cluster 3
Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Makai Lemon
KXNFLOROTY-27-MLEM
Cluster 4
Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jordyn Tyson
KXNFLOROTY-27-JTYS
Cluster 5
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLOROTY-27-JPRI
Cluster 6
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion
KXNFLOROTY-27-KCON
Cluster 7
Will Eli Stowers win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Eli Stowers win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Eli Stowers
KXNFLOROTY-27-ESTO
Cluster 8
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLOROTY-27-FMEN
Cluster 9
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate
KXNFLOROTY-27-CTAT
Cluster 10
Will Germie Bernard win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Germie Bernard win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Germie Bernard
KXNFLOROTY-27-GBER
Cluster 11
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jeremiyah Love
KXNFLOROTY-27-JLOV
Cluster 12
Will Ty Simpson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Ty Simpson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Ty Simpson
KXNFLOROTY-27-TSIM
Cluster 13
Will Jonah Coleman win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jonah Coleman win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jonah Coleman
KXNFLOROTY-27-JCOL
Cluster 14
Will Omar Cooper Jr. win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Omar Cooper Jr. win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Omar Cooper Jr.
KXNFLOROTY-27-OCOO
Analysis
This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Jadarian Price has a relatively modest chance of winning the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Price's current market price of 11 cents places him fourth among tracked candidates, well behind Fernando Mendoza at 24 cents but close to Jordyn Tyson at 12 cents. The probability is shaped primarily by Price's statistical performance relative to other rookie offensive players and his opportunity level within his team's offensive scheme. As the 2026 NFL season progresses through the fall, playing time, production metrics, and comparative performance against other rookie contenders will drive this probability up or down. The award itself will be determined in early 2027 based on the full regular season record, making ongoing weekly performance data the key driver of market movements.
- ›Price's actual playing time and snap count compared to other top rookie offensive candidates through the season
- ›His offensive statistics (passing yards, touchdowns, rushing performance depending on position) relative to Mendoza, Beck, Lemon, and Tyson
- ›Team offensive scheme changes, injuries to starters, or coaching decisions that affect Price's role and opportunities
- ›Market volume and trading patterns show Mendoza at 24 cents commands significantly higher confidence, indicating Price faces structured competition
- ›The award voting typically rewards peak statistical performance in either passing or rushing categories, making efficiency metrics critical to Price's case
What moved the line
- Apr 27Jordyn Tyson↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Carson Beck↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Carson Beck↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Jordyn Tyson↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Jordyn Tyson↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.