Will Brock Bowers record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$476
16 contracts
Closes
Feb 2, 2027
134 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Ja'Marr Chase record” vs “Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Ja'Marr Chase record
Will Ja'Marr Chase record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C10-JCHASE1
Will Ja'Marr Chase record 14+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C14-JCHASE1
Will Ja'Marr Chase record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C8-JCHASE1
Cluster 2
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record 12+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Amon-Ra St. Brown
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C12-ASTBROWN14
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Amon-Ra St. Brown
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C10-ASTBROWN14
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Amon-Ra St. Brown
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C8-ASTBROWN14
Cluster 3
Will Chris Olave record
Will Chris Olave record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Chris Olave
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C6-COLAVE12
Will Chris Olave record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Chris Olave
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C8-COLAVE12
Will Chris Olave record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Chris Olave
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C10-COLAVE12
Cluster 4
Will CeeDee Lamb record
Will CeeDee Lamb record 12+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: CeeDee Lamb
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C12-CLAMB88
Will CeeDee Lamb record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: CeeDee Lamb
KXNFLSEASONRECTD-27C8-CLAMB88
Cluster 5
Will Trey McBride record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 6
Will DK Metcalf record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Zay Flowers record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will DeVonta Smith record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 36% chance that Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers records at least 8 receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The probability reflects Bowers' performance trajectory since entering the league in 2025, his target share in the Raiders' offense, and typical touchdown production rates for elite tight ends. The current level suggests market uncertainty about whether Bowers will maintain or exceed his rookie-year production. Key variables include the Raiders' offensive scheme, quarterback consistency, and red-zone usage patterns. The season begins in September 2026, providing the resolution point; performance through preseason will offer early indicators of his role in the offense.
- ›Bowers' 2025 rookie season receiving touchdown total and target volume compared to elite tight end benchmarks
- ›Raiders offensive coordinator scheme and whether it emphasizes tight end involvement in the red zone
- ›Stability of Raiders' starting quarterback and consistency of passing game efficiency through the season
- ›Bowers' health status and whether he maintains physical condition needed for 16-game production
- ›Comparative market pricing suggests similar 36-38% probability for other 2025 rookie tight ends (Loveland, Egbuka), indicating baseline expectations for the cohort
What moved the line
- Sep 17Jaxon Smith-Njigba↓51pp53→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Chris Olave↓42pp47→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Jaxon Smith-Njigba↑42pp2→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18DK Metcalf↑39pp5→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17DK Metcalf↓37pp42→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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