Will Ja'Marr Chase record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$171
13 contracts
Closes
Feb 2, 2027
208 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will Colston Loveland record” vs “Will Jahmyr Gibbs record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Colston Loveland record
Will Colston Loveland record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Colston Loveland
KXNFLSEASONRECYDS-27C750-CLOVELAND84
Will Colston Loveland record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Colston Loveland
KXNFLSEASONRECYDS-27C1000-CLOVELAND84
Cluster 2
Will Jahmyr Gibbs record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 3
Will Makai Lemon record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 4
Will Rome Odunze record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 5
Will A.J. Brown record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 6
Will Brock Bowers record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Brian Thomas Jr. record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Carnell Tate record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will DJ Moore record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will DeVonta Smith record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 11
Will Emeka Egbuka record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 12
Will Harold Fannin Jr. record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 32% likelihood that Ja'Marr Chase reaches 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The probability reflects his consistent production history against typical wide receiver performance thresholds. Key drivers include his team's offensive scheme and whether Cincinnati prioritizes him as the primary receiver target. The main uncertainty resolves during the regular season itself, with clarity emerging by mid-season whether his catch volume and yards-per-game pace align with the 1,000-yard threshold. Comparative markets show lower probabilities for several other prominent receivers, suggesting the 32% reflects moderate confidence in Chase's ability among the eligible field.
- ›Ja'Marr Chase's average receiving yards per season relative to games played and required yards-per-game pace
- ›Cincinnati Bengals' offensive play-calling and target distribution among available receivers
- ›Chase's injury history and availability for a full 17-game regular season
- ›Relative probability that competing receivers like George Pickens (54¢) and Brock Bowers (37¢) reach the threshold versus Chase
- ›Changes to the Bengals' roster, coaching staff, or quarterback situation between now and September 2026
What moved the line
- Jul 8Colston Loveland↓23pp33→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Emeka Egbuka↓20pp45→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 3A.J. Brown↓16pp25→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Colston Loveland↑8pp33→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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