Will Ja'Marr Chase record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
19 contracts
Closes
Feb 2, 2027
160 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will Jaylen Waddle record” vs “Will Emeka Egbuka record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Jaylen Waddle record
Will Jaylen Waddle record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jaylen Waddle
KXNFLSEASONRECYDS-27C1000-JWADDLE17
Will Jaylen Waddle record 1250+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jaylen Waddle
KXNFLSEASONRECYDS-27C1250-JWADDLE17
Will Jaylen Waddle record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jaylen Waddle
KXNFLSEASONRECYDS-27C750-JWADDLE17
Cluster 2
Will Emeka Egbuka record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 3
Will Tee Higgins record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 4
Will Malik Nabers record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 5
Will Kayshon Boutte record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 6
Will Colston Loveland record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will DJ Moore record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Brock Bowers record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Mike Evans record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will A.J. Brown record 1250+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 11
Will Ja'Marr Chase record 1500+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 12
Will Ladd McConkey record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 13
Will Michael Wilson record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 14
Will Christian Watson record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 15
Will Tucker Kraft record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 16
Will Luther Burden III record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 17
Will Tetairoa McMillan record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 32% likelihood that Ja'Marr Chase reaches 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The probability reflects his consistent production history against typical wide receiver performance thresholds. Key drivers include his team's offensive scheme and whether Cincinnati prioritizes him as the primary receiver target. The main uncertainty resolves during the regular season itself, with clarity emerging by mid-season whether his catch volume and yards-per-game pace align with the 1,000-yard threshold. Comparative markets show lower probabilities for several other prominent receivers, suggesting the 32% reflects moderate confidence in Chase's ability among the eligible field.
- ›Ja'Marr Chase's average receiving yards per season relative to games played and required yards-per-game pace
- ›Cincinnati Bengals' offensive play-calling and target distribution among available receivers
- ›Chase's injury history and availability for a full 17-game regular season
- ›Relative probability that competing receivers like George Pickens (54¢) and Brock Bowers (37¢) reach the threshold versus Chase
- ›Changes to the Bengals' roster, coaching staff, or quarterback situation between now and September 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 24Kayshon Boutte↑16pp16→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Ja'Marr Chase↓16pp37→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Michael Wilson↑14pp14→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Kayshon Boutte↓11pp26→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Tetairoa McMillan↓11pp42→31¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 4d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 5d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 6d
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 6d
- Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.