Will Chase Brown record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
Feb 2, 2027
138 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Jadarian Price record 1” vs “Will Breece Hall record 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Jadarian Price record 1
Will Jadarian Price record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C10-JPRICE8
Will Jadarian Price record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C12-JPRICE8
Cluster 2
Will Breece Hall record 1
Will Breece Hall record 14+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Breece Hall
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C14-BHALL20
Will Breece Hall record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Breece Hall
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C10-BHALL20
Cluster 3
Will Cam Skattebo record 1
Will Cam Skattebo record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Cam Skattebo
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C10-CSKATTEBO44
Will Cam Skattebo record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Cam Skattebo
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C12-CSKATTEBO44
Cluster 4
Will Saquon Barkley record 1
Will Saquon Barkley record 14+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Saquon Barkley
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C14-SBARKLEY26
Will Saquon Barkley record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Saquon Barkley
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C10-SBARKLEY26
Cluster 5
Will Ashton Jeanty record 1
Will Ashton Jeanty record 16+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Ashton Jeanty
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C16-AJEANTY2
Will Ashton Jeanty record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Ashton Jeanty
KXNFLSEASONRSHTD-27C10-AJEANTY2
Cluster 6
Will Quinshon Judkins record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Kyren Williams record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Mike Washington Jr. record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Kenneth Walker III record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Chase Brown record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 11
Will De'Von Achane record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 12
Will Jonathon Brooks record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 13
Will Bhayshul Tuten record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 14
Will Derrick Henry record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 15
Will Lamar Jackson record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This probability reflects a roughly even-odds assessment that running back Chase Brown will reach double-digit rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL season. The 48% current price suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Brown will maintain sufficient offensive opportunities and goal-line carries to achieve 10+ scores. The main drivers of this level are: whether Brown retains a lead role in his team's backfield and whether his team's offense scores enough touchdowns overall to create opportunities at the goal line. The resolution will become clearer during the season as actual statistics accumulate, with the outcome determined by Brown's total rushing touchdowns when the regular season concludes in early 2027. Early-season performance in the first 4-6 weeks will likely provide directional signals about his usage and scoring consistency.
- ›Chase Brown's snap count share and carries per game relative to his backfield competition
- ›His team's offensive touchdown efficiency and red zone scoring rate through the season
- ›The difference between the 8+ market (45¢) and 10+ market (65¢) suggests roughly a 20-point probability gap for the final 2 touchdowns
- ›Historical rushing touchdown rates for backs in similar offensive roles and team situations
- ›Week 1-4 performance data that would indicate whether he's receiving consistent goal-line opportunities
What moved the line
- Sep 12Derrick Henry↑54pp12→66¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Saquon Barkley↑29pp3→32¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Saquon Barkley↓22pp25→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Jadarian Price↑19pp15→34¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Jadarian Price↑17pp5→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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