Will Ashton Jeanty record 750+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$867
19 contracts
Closes
Feb 2, 2027
165 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will David Montgomery record” vs “Will Quinshon Judkins record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will David Montgomery record
Will David Montgomery record 750+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: David Montgomery
KXNFLSEASONRSHYDS-27C750-DMONTGOMERY32
Will David Montgomery record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: David Montgomery
KXNFLSEASONRSHYDS-27C1000-DMONTGOMERY32
Cluster 2
Will Quinshon Judkins record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 3
Will Omarion Hampton record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 4
Will Ashton Jeanty record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 5
Will Jadarian Price record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 6
Will Jonathon Brooks record 750+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Kyle Monangai record 750+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Jacory Croskey-Merritt record 750+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will De'Von Achane record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Breece Hall record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 11
Will Bucky Irving record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 12
Will Bijan Robinson record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 13
Will Chase Brown record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 14
Will Christian McCaffrey record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 15
Will Cam Skattebo record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 16
Will Derrick Henry record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 17
Will James Cook III record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 18
Will Jahmyr Gibbs record 1000+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This market asks whether Ashton Jeanty will rush for at least 750 yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season, currently priced at 29% probability. Jeanty, a high-profile running back prospect, faces uncertainty around team context, offensive usage, and injury risk that affect his production ceiling. The threshold of 750 yards represents a meaningful but achievable target—well below elite 1,000-yard seasons but above average starter production. The probability reflects moderate skepticism about whether his team's offensive scheme and rushing volume will support that output. Key developments affecting this contract would include his team's quarterback situation, offensive line performance, and any changes to the backfield committee during the season. The resolution date is set for January 2027, when final regular-season statistics become official.
- ›Jeanty's team's rushing attempt volume and offensive line ranking relative to NFL average
- ›His workload share in a potential crowded backfield or role as primary starter
- ›Pre-season injury reports or changes to his team's offensive depth chart
- ›Offensive scheme efficiency metrics and yards-per-attempt performance through weeks 1-8
- ›Comparison of his actual touches per game against typical elite RB usage rates
What moved the line
- Aug 20James Cook III↑27pp20→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Kyle Monangai↑17pp12→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Jacory Croskey-Merritt↑17pp4→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17David Montgomery↑17pp13→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Jahmyr Gibbs↑17pp13→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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