Will Green Bay be eliminated in the Wildcard Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$232
12 contracts
Closes
Mar 7, 2027
222 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Baltimore be eliminated in” vs “Will Arizona”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Baltimore be eliminated in
Will Baltimore be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Regular Season
KXNFLSTAGEOFELIM-27BAL-REG
Will Baltimore be eliminated in the Divisional Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Divisional Round
KXNFLSTAGEOFELIM-27BAL-DIV
Cluster 2
Will Arizona
Cluster 3
Will Atlanta be eliminated in
Will Atlanta be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Regular Season
KXNFLSTAGEOFELIM-27ATL-REG
Will Atlanta be eliminated in the Wildcard Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Wildcard Round
KXNFLSTAGEOFELIM-27ATL-WC
Cluster 4
Will Jacksonville be eliminated in the Divisional Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season
Cluster 5
Will Los Angeles C be eliminated in the Divisional Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season
Cluster 6
Will Kansas City be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season
Cluster 7
Will Houston be eliminated in the Divisional Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season
Cluster 8
Will Chicago be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season
Cluster 9
Will Green Bay be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season
Analysis
This market estimates a 20% chance that the Green Bay Packers will be eliminated in the NFL Wildcard Round during the 2026-27 season, meaning they either miss the playoffs entirely or win their division/conference enough to advance past Wildcard play. The probability reflects expectations about Green Bay's roster strength and NFC North competitiveness. Key factors influencing this estimate include the Packers' current roster composition, injuries to key players, divisional rivals' strength (particularly Chicago and Minnesota), and overall NFC playoff seeding dynamics. Uncertainty will resolve through the regular season as team performance becomes measurable, with the NFL playoff bracket formally determined by late December 2026 when the season concludes. The market essentially prices in a moderately strong playoff position for Green Bay rather than early elimination.
- ›Green Bay's win-loss record and playoff seeding through the 2026 regular season will directly determine wildcard round participation, with stronger records reducing elimination probability
- ›The competitiveness of the NFC North division will drive whether Green Bay secures a division title versus a wildcard spot, with Chicago and Minnesota performance being critical variables
- ›Injuries to key offensive or defensive players during the season could significantly alter playoff trajectory and elimination risk
- ›Comparative strength of other NFC teams will affect the overall playoff bracket and Green Bay's path, particularly wild card berth competition
- ›Head-to-head performance against divisional opponents determines playoff seeding and directly impacts whether Green Bay plays in the Wildcard Round
What moved the line
- Jul 26Regular Season↑7pp26→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 27Divisional Round↑7pp4→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Divisional Round↓6pp10→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 28Regular Season↓5pp87→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 24Divisional Round↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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