Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic State Committee directly selects Graham Platner's replacement before Aug 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
4 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic State Committee directly selects Graham Platner's replacement before Aug 1, 2026
Analysis
This market prices the likelihood that Maine Democrats will replace Senate nominee Graham Platner through a statewide caucus process before August 1, 2026. The 68% probability reflects market expectations that if a replacement occurs, it will happen via caucus rather than direct state committee selection (8%), special convention (14%), or other mechanisms (7%). The leading outcome suggests traders view caucuses as the Democrats' preferred procedural path, should party leadership decide to change nominees. Key factors influencing this assessment include Maine Democratic Party bylaws governing nominee replacement, the compressed timeline before August 1st, and recent reporting on intra-party deliberations about Platner's candidacy. Traders are essentially forecasting both that replacement will occur and that the method will be statewide caucuses. Movement would likely follow official party statements clarifying succession procedures or reporting indicating imminent action.
- ›Maine Democratic Party bylaws explicitly detail the procedures and pathways available for nominee replacement, determining which methods are legally viable before August 1
- ›Market prices across five competing outcomes sum to approximately 102¢, indicating traders assign roughly 2% probability to none of these specific methods occurring
- ›The statewide caucus outcome (68¢) commands roughly 8.5x greater probability than direct state committee selection (8¢), suggesting procedural preference or perceived logistics
- ›Historical precedent and party communications regarding nominee changes in Maine would inform trader expectations about the likeliest procedural path
- ›Calendar dynamics: August 1 deadline creates specific operational constraints on which methods can feasibly conclude
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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