Will the single season receiving yards record be broken
Leader sits at 11% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Over 23 sacks
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Over 1964 receiving yards
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$78
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 18, 2027
134 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the single season
Will the single season receiving yards record be broken?: Over 1964 receiving yards
KXNFLSZNRECORD-27RECYDS-Y
Will the single season sack record be broken?: Over 23 sacks
KXNFLSZNRECORD-27SACK-Y
Will the single season rushing yards record be broken?: Over 2105 rushing yards
KXNFLSZNRECORD-27RSHYDS-Y
Will the single season receptions record be broken?: Over 149 receptions
KXNFLSZNRECORD-27REC-Y
Will the single season passing yards record be broken?: Over 5477 passing yards
KXNFLSZNRECORD-27PYDS-Y
Analysis
This market assesses the probability that an NFL player will exceed 1,964 receiving yards in a single season, currently priced at 10% based on limited trading activity. The record has stood since 1961 and requires sustained elite performance across a full 17-game season. The probability reflects that while several receivers regularly approach or exceed 1,600 yards, breaking 1,964 demands both exceptional talent and favorable circumstances including health, offensive scheme alignment, and target volume. The 2026 NFL season (ongoing through January 2027) will determine whether any current receiver achieves this threshold. The market shows lower confidence in receiving yards being broken compared to sack records, suggesting historical difficulty in reaching this specific benchmark despite modern offensive evolution.
- ›Current NFL receiving yards leaders in 2026 season and their proximity to 1,964 yards as of late August
- ›Comparison of recent single-season receiving yard totals (2020-2025) to identify trend toward or away from the record
- ›Gap between the receiving yards record (1,964) and the next closest modern-era seasonal totals
- ›Kalshi contract pricing at 5¢ implies approximately 5% implied probability, suggesting low but non-negligible odds
- ›Historical frequency of season-long 1,600+ yard receiving seasons versus the rarity of 1,900+ yard seasons
What moved the line
- Sep 5Over 1964 receiving yards↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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