Will Miami allow the fewest points scored
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$31
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 18, 2027
125 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Philadelphia allow the fewest points scored
Will Philadelphia allow the fewest points scored?: Philadelphia
KXNFLTEAMDPTS-LEAST27-PHI
Cluster 2
Will Baltimore allow the fewest points scored
Will Baltimore allow the fewest points scored?: Baltimore
KXNFLTEAMDPTS-LEAST27-BAL
Cluster 3
Will Denver allow the fewest points scored
Will Denver allow the fewest points scored?: Denver
KXNFLTEAMDPTS-LEAST27-DEN
Cluster 4
Will Houston allow the fewest points scored
Will Houston allow the fewest points scored?: Houston
KXNFLTEAMDPTS-LEAST27-HOU
Cluster 5
Will Los Angeles R allow the fewest points scored
Will Los Angeles R allow the fewest points scored?: Los Angeles R
KXNFLTEAMDPTS-LEAST27-LAR
Analysis
This probability reflects a 16% chance that Miami's defense will allow fewer points than all other NFL teams during the 2026 season. The current price suggests Miami is among the middle-tier favorites for this outcome, trailing Houston (25%) but competitive with Los Angeles and other teams. Miami's defensive performance depends primarily on their ability to maintain consistency across the full season without significant injuries to key defensive personnel. The main factors driving this probability are the team's current roster composition, coaching staff stability, and injury history relative to other AFC East competitors. The outcome will be fully determined once the regular season concludes and final defensive statistics are compiled, making this a season-long bet dependent on sustained performance rather than any single near-term catalyst.
- ›Miami's defensive personnel health and availability across all 17 regular season games compared to competitors
- ›Historical defensive efficiency metrics for Miami versus teams like Houston, Los Angeles, and other division rivals
- ›Coaching changes or defensive coordinator adjustments that could impact scheme effectiveness
- ›Strength of schedule and opponent offensive quality, which affects total points allowed regardless of defensive quality
- ›Mid-season roster moves, trades, or free-agent signings that could strengthen or weaken Miami's defense
What moved the line
- Sep 12Los Angeles R↑27pp7→34¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Baltimore↑6pp6→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Los Angeles R↓6pp13→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Houston↓4pp24→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Denver↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 2d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 2d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 4d
- Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies electionslast 48% · 4d
- Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial electionslast 23% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.