Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+3pp
14h ago
24h volume
$0
17 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
212 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kyler Murray be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Kyler Murray be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Kyler Murray
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-KMUR
Cluster 2
Will Mac Jones be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Mac Jones be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Mac Jones
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-MJON
Cluster 3
Will A.J. Brown be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will A.J. Brown be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: A.J. Brown
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-ABRO
Cluster 4
Will Keon Coleman be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Keon Coleman be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Keon Coleman
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-KCOL
Cluster 5
Will Jameis Winston be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Jameis Winston be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Jameis Winston
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-JWIN
Cluster 6
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Brian Thomas Jr.
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-BTHO
Cluster 7
Will Joe Burrow be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Joe Burrow be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Joe Burrow
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-JBUR
Cluster 8
Will Tee Higgins be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Tee Higgins be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Tee Higgins
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-THIG
Cluster 9
Will Ja'Marr Chase be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Ja'Marr Chase be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Ja'Marr Chase
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-JCHA
Cluster 10
Will Maxx Crosby be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Maxx Crosby be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Maxx Crosby
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-MCRO
Cluster 11
Will Ed Oliver be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Ed Oliver be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Ed Oliver
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-EOLI
Cluster 12
Will Kayvon Thibodeaux be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Kayvon Thibodeaux be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Kayvon Thibodeaux
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-KTHI
Cluster 13
Will Stefon Diggs be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Stefon Diggs be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Stefon Diggs
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-SDIG
Cluster 14
Will Breece Hall be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Breece Hall be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Breece Hall
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-BHAL
Cluster 15
Will Rashod Bateman be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Rashod Bateman be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Rashod Bateman
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-RBAT
Cluster 16
Will Nick Herbig be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Nick Herbig be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Nick Herbig
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-NHER
Cluster 17
Will Anthony Richardson Sr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Anthony Richardson Sr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Anthony Richardson Sr.
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-ARIC
Analysis
This market estimates a 16% chance that Brian Thomas Jr., the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2024 first-round wide receiver, will be traded before December 1, 2026. At this probability level, the market suggests a trade is possible but unlikely during the next seven months. The estimate reflects Thomas's youth, injury concerns from his rookie season, and the Jaguars' current roster direction. A trade would most likely occur during the NFL offseason (now through mid-July) or at the August trade deadline, as teams rarely trade young receivers mid-season. Key catalysts include the Jaguars' draft decisions, coaching staff changes, or significant performance data from Thomas's 2026 training camp and preseason. The probability would rise if the team signals dissatisfaction or opens salary-cap space; it would fall if Thomas demonstrates health and on-field improvement.
- ›Thomas is entering only his second NFL season after being drafted sixth overall in 2024, making a trade within 18 months of draft day historically uncommon for first-round receivers
- ›The Jaguars drafted Thomas despite having Calvin Ridley at receiver, and have not signaled roster dissatisfaction with him through May 2026
- ›NFL trade deadlines (mid-July offseason, August preseason) provide defined windows when receiver trades typically occur, constraining the timeframe
- ›Thomas's 2026 training camp and preseason performance will likely be the most significant data point influencing trade speculation before December
- ›Active receiver trades involving young first-rounders occur infrequently relative to other positions, suggesting base-rate skepticism of a trade within this timeframe
What moved the line
- Apr 29Rashod Bateman↑22pp12→34¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Kayvon Thibodeaux↓15pp47→32¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Brian Thomas Jr.↓4pp15→11¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26A.J. Brown↑3pp83→86¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27A.J. Brown↓3pp86→83¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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