Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
17 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
69 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mac Jones be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Mac Jones be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Mac Jones
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-MJON
Cluster 2
Will Stefon Diggs be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Stefon Diggs be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Stefon Diggs
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-SDIG
Cluster 3
Will Maxx Crosby be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Maxx Crosby be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Maxx Crosby
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-MCRO
Cluster 4
Will Jerry Jeudy be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Jerry Jeudy be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Jerry Jeudy
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-JJEU
Cluster 5
Will Keon Coleman be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Keon Coleman be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Keon Coleman
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-KCOL
Cluster 6
Will Jameis Winston be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Jameis Winston be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Jameis Winston
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-JWIN
Cluster 7
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Brian Thomas Jr.
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-BTHO
Cluster 8
Will Joe Burrow be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Joe Burrow be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Joe Burrow
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-JBUR
Cluster 9
Will Tee Higgins be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Tee Higgins be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Tee Higgins
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-THIG
Cluster 10
Will Ed Oliver be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Ed Oliver be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Ed Oliver
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-EOLI
Cluster 11
Will Kayvon Thibodeaux be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Kayvon Thibodeaux be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Kayvon Thibodeaux
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-KTHI
Cluster 12
Will Jalen Ramsey be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Jalen Ramsey be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Jalen Ramsey
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-JRAM
Cluster 13
Will Tua Tagovailoa be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Tua Tagovailoa be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Tua Tagovailoa
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-TTAG
Cluster 14
Will Christian Barmore be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Christian Barmore be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Christian Barmore
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-CBAR
Cluster 15
Will Breece Hall be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Breece Hall be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Breece Hall
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-BHAL
Cluster 16
Will Rashod Bateman be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Rashod Bateman be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Rashod Bateman
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-RBAT
Cluster 17
Will Joel Bitonio be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Joel Bitonio be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Joel Bitonio
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-JBIT
Analysis
This contract reflects the probability that Brian Thomas Jr., a young wide receiver, would be traded away from his current team before December 1, 2026. At 16%, the market is pricing in a low likelihood of a trade occurring within this timeframe. The probability is driven primarily by Thomas's status as a recent draft pick with his original team still early in evaluating his fit, and secondarily by the relative rarity of trading young offensive skill-position players mid-season. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the NFL trade deadline on October 27, 2026, which is the practical cutoff for mid-season trades. Contract situations and team performance through September and October would influence whether his team considers trading him versus a veteran player.
- ›Brian Thomas Jr.'s draft status and salary scale relative to established veterans who are more commonly traded
- ›His team's offensive scheme fit and playing time allocation through the 2026 regular season
- ›Whether his current team remains in playoff contention or faces unexpected personnel losses by mid-season
- ›Market comparability: Breece Hall (75¢) is significantly higher, suggesting context about position, age, or team factors differs substantially
- ›The NFL trade deadline on October 27, 2026 serves as the hard cutoff for mid-season transactions
What moved the line
- Sep 17Kayvon Thibodeaux↓12pp25→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Maxx Crosby↓11pp41→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Brian Thomas Jr.↓7pp19→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Kayvon Thibodeaux↓7pp13→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Rashod Bateman↓6pp13→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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