SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshirefreshed 10 min agoCloses Jan 18, 2027 · 259d7pp · 19h

Will the Carolina pro football team win at least 7 games this season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

33%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

33%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

−7pp

19h ago

24h volume

$1K

20 contracts

Closes

Jan 18, 2027

259 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 33% (13 days, 13 points)Aggregate: 33% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 13d

Bracket families

14 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will the New” vs “Will the Washington pro football team win at least”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will the New

3 contracts$166

Cluster 2

Will the Washington pro football team win at least

3 contracts$93

Cluster 3

Will the Minnesota pro football team win at least

2 contracts$290

Cluster 4

Will the Las Vegas pro football team win at least

2 contracts$46

Cluster 5

Will the Miami pro football team win at least 5 games this season

1 contract$201

Cluster 6

Will the Cincinnati pro football team win at least 10 games this season

1 contract$162

Cluster 7

Will the Denver pro football team win at least 10 games this season

1 contract$109

Cluster 8

Will the Arizona pro football team win at least 5 games this season

1 contract$63

Cluster 9

Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 11 games this season

1 contract$60

Cluster 10

Will the Jacksonville pro football team win at least 10 games this season

1 contract$51

Cluster 11

Will the Seattle pro football team win at least 12 games this season

1 contract$29

Cluster 12

Will the Philadelphia pro football team win at least 11 games this season

1 contract$20

Cluster 13

Will the Cleveland pro football team win at least 10 games this season

1 contract$11

Cluster 14

Will the San Francisco pro football team win at least 11 games this season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market indicates a 40% probability that Carolina wins at least 7 games in the 2026 pro football season. The current level reflects mixed assessments of the team's roster strength and competitive position. Win totals hinge on offensive consistency, injury management, and schedule difficulty—factors that become clearer as the season progresses. The probability will face its most significant test starting with Carolina's opening game in September 2026, when actual performance data begins accumulating and early-season results either validate or contradict preseason expectations.

  • Carolina's preseason roster composition compared to divisional competitors, particularly NFC South teams currently considered stronger
  • Historical performance trends of Carolina's coaching staff and quarterback depth chart in win-probability forecasting models
  • Schedule strength relative to overall league difficulty, including number of games against playoff-caliber opponents
  • Injury history patterns for key Carolina offensive and defensive personnel entering the 2026 season
  • Market pricing on related contracts shows Carolina division championship at 20¢, suggesting underlying skepticism about team competitiveness

What moved the line

  • Apr 295+ wins42pp508¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 2610+ wins31pp5120¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 269+ wins30pp333¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 279+ wins21pp1334¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 275+ wins16pp3147¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.