Will the Carolina pro football team win at least 7 games this season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−7pp
19h ago
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 18, 2027
259 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will the New” vs “Will the Washington pro football team win at least”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the New
Will the New York G pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NYG-10
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-10
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-9
Cluster 2
Will the Washington pro football team win at least
Will the Washington pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27WAS-8
Will the Washington pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27WAS-10
Will the Washington pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27WAS-9
Cluster 3
Will the Minnesota pro football team win at least
Cluster 4
Will the Las Vegas pro football team win at least
Cluster 5
Will the Miami pro football team win at least 5 games this season
Will the Miami pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27MIA-5
Cluster 6
Will the Cincinnati pro football team win at least 10 games this season
Will the Cincinnati pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27CIN-10
Cluster 7
Will the Denver pro football team win at least 10 games this season
Will the Denver pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27DEN-10
Cluster 8
Will the Arizona pro football team win at least 5 games this season
Will the Arizona pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27ARI-5
Cluster 9
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 11 games this season
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-11
Cluster 10
Will the Jacksonville pro football team win at least 10 games this season
Will the Jacksonville pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27JAC-10
Cluster 11
Will the Seattle pro football team win at least 12 games this season
Will the Seattle pro football team win at least 12 games this season?: 12+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27SEA-12
Cluster 12
Will the Philadelphia pro football team win at least 11 games this season
Will the Philadelphia pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27PHI-11
Cluster 13
Will the Cleveland pro football team win at least 10 games this season
Will the Cleveland pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27CLE-10
Cluster 14
Will the San Francisco pro football team win at least 11 games this season
Will the San Francisco pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27SF-11
Analysis
This market indicates a 40% probability that Carolina wins at least 7 games in the 2026 pro football season. The current level reflects mixed assessments of the team's roster strength and competitive position. Win totals hinge on offensive consistency, injury management, and schedule difficulty—factors that become clearer as the season progresses. The probability will face its most significant test starting with Carolina's opening game in September 2026, when actual performance data begins accumulating and early-season results either validate or contradict preseason expectations.
- ›Carolina's preseason roster composition compared to divisional competitors, particularly NFC South teams currently considered stronger
- ›Historical performance trends of Carolina's coaching staff and quarterback depth chart in win-probability forecasting models
- ›Schedule strength relative to overall league difficulty, including number of games against playoff-caliber opponents
- ›Injury history patterns for key Carolina offensive and defensive personnel entering the 2026 season
- ›Market pricing on related contracts shows Carolina division championship at 20¢, suggesting underlying skepticism about team competitiveness
What moved the line
- Apr 295+ wins↓42pp50→8¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 2610+ wins↓31pp51→20¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 269+ wins↑30pp3→33¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 279+ wins↑21pp13→34¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 275+ wins↑16pp31→47¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.