Will the Carolina pro football team win at least 7 games this season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 18, 2027
165 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will the New York” vs “Will the Washington pro football team win at least”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the New York
Will the New York G pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NYG-9
Will the New York G pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NYG-8
Will the New York G pro football team win at least 12 games this season?: 12+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NYG-12
Will the New York J pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NYJ-5
Will the New York J pro football team win at least 2 games this season?: 2+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NYJ-2
Will the New York J pro football team win at least 6 games this season?: 6+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NYJ-6
Cluster 2
Will the Washington pro football team win at least
Cluster 3
Will the Miami pro football team win at least
Cluster 4
Will the Dallas pro football team win at least
Cluster 5
Will the Houston pro football team win at least 10 games this season
Will the Houston pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27HOU-10
Cluster 6
Will the Kansas City pro football team win at least 10 games this season
Will the Kansas City pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27KC-10
Cluster 7
Will the Jacksonville pro football team win at least 13 games this season
Will the Jacksonville pro football team win at least 13 games this season?: 13+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27JAC-13
Cluster 8
Will the Atlanta pro football team win at least 8 games this season
Will the Atlanta pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27ATL-8
Cluster 9
Will the Chicago pro football team win at least 10 games this season
Will the Chicago pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27CHI-10
Cluster 10
Will the Las Vegas pro football team win at least 8 games this season
Will the Las Vegas pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27LV-8
Cluster 11
Will the Minnesota pro football team win at least 11 games this season
Will the Minnesota pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27MIN-11
Cluster 12
Will the Cleveland pro football team win at least 7 games this season
Will the Cleveland pro football team win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27CLE-7
Analysis
This market contract indicates that traders estimate a 37% chance the Carolina pro football team will win at least 7 games during the 2026 NFL season. This probability reflects expectations that the team will finish below a .500 record, suggesting markets view the roster or coaching situation as below-average competitive strength. The main drivers of this modest forecast are likely team construction, quarterback performance, and divisional strength, particularly given Carolina's placement in a competitive NFC South. The probability could shift significantly once the season begins and actual win-loss results provide clarity on team performance, with the final determination coming when the 2026 regular season concludes in January 2027.
- ›Carolina's current roster depth, offensive line quality, and defensive capability compared to division rivals Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans
- ›Performance of the quarterback position, including consistency, injury status, and decision-making under pressure
- ›Coaching staff execution and play-calling effectiveness relative to other NFC South teams in a competitive division
- ›Strength of schedule, particularly win probability against non-division opponents in weeks 1-17
- ›Comparative market pricing on other NFC South teams, where Baltimore is trading at 39% for 12+ wins, suggesting relative pessimism about Carolina specifically
What moved the line
- Aug 52+ wins↓7pp95→88¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14+ wins↓6pp59→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 513+ wins↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 34+ wins↓3pp51→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 302+ wins↓3pp94→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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