Will Green Bay win at least 2 games in the first 4 weeks
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
19 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
105 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Green Bay win at least
Will Green Bay win at least 6 games in the first 12 weeks?: Green Bay: 6+ wins in first 12 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W12-GB6
Will Green Bay win at least 4 games in the first 4 weeks?: Green Bay: 4 wins in first 4 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W4-GB4
Will Green Bay win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks?: Green Bay: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W12-GB8
Will Green Bay win at least 3 games in the first 4 weeks?: Green Bay: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W4-GB3
Cluster 2
Will Dallas win at least
Will Dallas win at least 4 games in the first 4 weeks?: Dallas: 4 wins in first 4 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W4-DAL4
Will Dallas win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks?: Dallas: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W12-DAL8
Will Dallas win at least 9 games in the first 12 weeks?: Dallas: 9+ wins in first 12 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W12-DAL9
Cluster 3
Will Pittsburgh win at least
Cluster 4
Will Cleveland win at least
Cluster 5
Will Baltimore win at least
Cluster 6
Will Detroit win at least 5 games in the first 8 weeks
Will Detroit win at least 5 games in the first 8 weeks?: Detroit: 5+ wins in first 8 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W8-DET5
Cluster 7
Will Washington win at least 5 games in the first 12 weeks
Cluster 8
Will Philadelphia win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks
Cluster 9
Will Chicago win at least 3 games in the first 4 weeks
Will Chicago win at least 3 games in the first 4 weeks?: Chicago: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W4-CHI3
Cluster 10
Will Atlanta win at least 3 games in the first 8 weeks
Will Atlanta win at least 3 games in the first 8 weeks?: Atlanta: 3+ wins in first 8 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W8-ATL3
Cluster 11
Will Carolina win at least 1 game in the first 12 weeks
Will Carolina win at least 1 game in the first 12 weeks?: Carolina: 1+ wins in first 12 weeks
KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W12-CAR1
Analysis
This contract asks whether the Green Bay Packers will win at least 2 games during weeks 1-4 of the 2026 NFL season. At 55%, the market reflects slightly better-than-even odds. The probability depends primarily on the team's roster composition, starting quarterback health, and the strength of their opening schedule opponents. Key unknowns include whether the Packers have made significant offseason improvements, how their defense performs early in the season, and whether key players avoid injury during this stretch. The contract will be decided by the official results of Green Bay's first four games, which will conclude in late September 2026.
- ›Packers' starting quarterback status and performance level entering the season; injury or decline would substantially lower win probability
- ›Quality of opening schedule opponents in weeks 1-4; strength of schedule directly impacts win probability
- ›Offensive line health and effectiveness; line stability is critical for any offense functioning in early season
- ›Defensive performance metrics in first four weeks, particularly against pass-heavy offenses in the early schedule
- ›Prior season trajectory; 2025 regular season results would indicate offensive and defensive capability heading into 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 23Green Bay: 4 wins in first 4 weeks↓9pp18→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Atlanta: 3+ wins in first 8 weeks↓9pp60→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Green Bay: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks↓9pp54→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Green Bay: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks↑8pp16→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Green Bay: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks↓7pp25→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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