North East United FC vs. FC Goa
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 43%, Polymarket at 30% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
15 contracts
Polymarket
30%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$370K
20 contracts
Top contract
59¢
$112K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 43¢ · Polymarket 30¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (30¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (43¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P13
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 2
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03MUNLFC-3
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03MUNLFC-4
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03MUNLFC-2
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03MUNLFC-1
Cluster 3
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC
0x10cbc2…77dd
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC
0x76a37b…687c
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5)
0x4ce71d…a7ed
Cluster 4
Manchester United wins by over
Cluster 5
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over
Cluster 6
Will a protest within the United States that draws a combined estimated attendance of at least 250,000 people across all locations be confirmed
Cluster 7
United States vs. Paraguay: United States
United States vs. Paraguay: United States
0x26c10c…dfc9
Cluster 8
Leeds United wins by over 1.5 goals
Leeds United wins by over 1.5 goals?: Leeds United wins by over 1.5 goals
KXEPLSPREAD-26MAY11TOTLEE-LEE1
What moved the line
- Apr 26Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑17pp46→63¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑17pp63→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26Manchester United wins by over 1.5 goals↑11pp9→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Manchester United wins by over 1.5 goals↑8pp13→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.