North East United FC vs. FC Goa
Leader sits at 35% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democrats, 9+ pts
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Democrats, 11+ pts
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
497 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P13
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Analysis
The market implies a 41% probability that Democrats will win North Carolina's U.S. Senate election by at least 9 percentage points. The graduated contract structure shows significant uncertainty: traders price a 13+ point Democratic win at just 28%, suggesting the most likely scenarios involve either a closer Democratic victory, a Republican win, or substantial movement before election day. Historical performance in swing-state Senate races, current polling aggregates, and candidate-specific approval ratings are driving the current assessment. The outcome will be determined by the November 2026 general election, with the final months likely bringing shifts as the campaign intensifies and late-breaking events unfold. Liquidity remains limited across these contracts, which may affect price stability.
- ›The 41% probability for a 9+ point Democratic margin reflects elevated uncertainty compared to a binary win/loss outcome, indicating meaningful probability mass across multiple margin scenarios
- ›Kalshi's 24% average across five contracts suggests traders assign only 28% probability to Democrats exceeding a 13-point margin, the most decisive outcome
- ›North Carolina's partisan lean and historical Senate race margins provide a baseline reference; 2024 state-level performance data will influence expectations for 2026
- ›Polling aggregates in the 18 months before November 2026 will be the primary driver of probability adjustments, with particular weight on direct Senate matchup surveys
- ›Limited 24-hour trading volume ($8 maximum on any single contract) indicates low current engagement, making the probabilities vulnerable to shifts as the election approaches
What moved the line
- Jun 19Democrats, 9+ pts↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 11+ pts↓6pp36→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 13+ pts↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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