Norwich City FC vs. Swansea City AFC - More Markets
Leader sits at 33% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kansas City
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Kansas City
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$422
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 22, 2027
246 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC
Analysis
The 34% probability reflects traders' assessment that Kansas City will secure the AFC West Division title in the 2026 NFL season. This represents slightly better than 1-in-3 odds, suggesting meaningful competition within the division despite Kansas City's historical strength. The probability is primarily shaped by Kansas City's current roster composition, injury status of key players, and offseason acquisitions compared to division rivals Denver, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles Chargers. Trading volume on the division winner contract significantly exceeds the AFC Championship contract, indicating greater confidence in resolving division outcomes versus longer-term championship forecasting. The main catalyst will be the 2026 NFL season's commencement and early performance through Week 4-6, when team quality becomes clearer. Subsequent factors include quarterback health maintenance, defensive consistency, and division rivals' performance trajectories throughout the season.
- ›Kansas City's quarterback availability and performance relative to division rivals' starting QB situations
- ›Current roster depth and offseason personnel changes compared to Denver, Las Vegas, and LA Chargers acquisitions
- ›Head-to-head strength-of-schedule within the AFC West (6 divisional games determine title outcome)
- ›Historical win-loss patterns in the division over the past 2-3 seasons and recent draft positioning
- ›Injury reports and roster stability through training camp and preseason (late July-August 2026)
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (33% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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