Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 33% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.75% or above
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
5% or above
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
147 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?: 4.75% or above
KXNOTE10Y-26DEC31-T4.74
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?: 5.15% or above
KXNOTE10Y-26DEC31-T5.14
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?: 5.1% or above
KXNOTE10Y-26DEC31-T5.09
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?: 5% or above
KXNOTE10Y-26DEC31-T4.99
Analysis
This market is pricing a 26% probability that 10-year U.S. Treasury yields will exceed 5.14% by December 31, 2026. The prediction reflects expectations about Federal Reserve policy, inflation trajectory, and economic growth over the next six months. Markets currently favor yields staying below this level, with traders assigning higher probabilities to outcomes between 4.74% and 5.09%. The key driver is whether the Fed maintains its current monetary stance or shifts course based on inflation and labor-market data. Major economic data releases—particularly inflation reports, employment figures, and Fed statements—will be the primary catalysts that could shift probability. The outcome ultimately depends on whether Treasury yields rise sharply from current levels, requiring either significant economic deterioration or an inflation resurgence to justify rates at this elevated threshold.
- ›Current 10-year yield levels as of June 2026 and the recent trend trajectory determine the distance needed to reach 5.14%
- ›Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and forward guidance between June and December 2026 directly influence long-term yields
- ›Inflation data releases over the second half of 2026, particularly CPI and PCE reports, will impact expectations for real yields
- ›Employment and economic growth indicators will signal whether the Fed maintains accommodation or considers rate adjustments
- ›The pricing pattern across the four contracts (27¢ at 4.99%, 6¢ at 5.14%) shows market conviction that yields are unlikely to reach the highest threshold
What moved the line
- Jul 315% or above↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25% or above↓5pp23→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 54.75% or above↑4pp29→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25.1% or above↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 35.1% or above↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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