Will San Diego Wave FC win the NWSL Championship Game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41
9 contracts
Closes
Dec 6, 2026
134 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City Current win the NWSL Championship Game
Will Kansas City Current win the NWSL Championship Game?: Kansas City Current
KXNWSL-26-KC
Cluster 2
Will Angel City FC win the NWSL Championship Game
Will Angel City FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: Angel City FC
KXNWSL-26-ANG
Cluster 3
Will Boston Legacy FC win the NWSL Championship Game
Will Boston Legacy FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: Boston Legacy FC
KXNWSL-26-BOS
Cluster 4
Will Gotham FC win the NWSL Championship Game
Will Gotham FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: Gotham FC
KXNWSL-26-GOT
Cluster 5
Will Portland Thorns win the NWSL Championship Game
Will Portland Thorns win the NWSL Championship Game?: Portland Thorns
KXNWSL-26-PTH
Cluster 6
Will Seattle Reign win the NWSL Championship Game
Will Seattle Reign win the NWSL Championship Game?: Seattle Reign
KXNWSL-26-REI
Cluster 7
Will San Diego Wave FC win the NWSL Championship Game
Will San Diego Wave FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: San Diego Wave FC
KXNWSL-26-SAN
Cluster 8
Will Utah Royals FC win the NWSL Championship Game
Will Utah Royals FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: Utah Royals FC
KXNWSL-26-URO
Cluster 9
Will Washington Spirit win the NWSL Championship Game
Will Washington Spirit win the NWSL Championship Game?: Washington Spirit
KXNWSL-26-WSP
Analysis
The 5% probability reflects market expectations that San Diego Wave FC has a one-in-twenty chance of winning the NWSL Championship Game. This assessment is lower than several competitors, particularly Washington Spirit at 10%, suggesting traders view the Wave as less likely contenders this season. The probability is driven by factors including team roster composition, mid-season performance metrics, and injury status relative to other NWSL clubs. The championship will be resolved on November 9, 2026, when the final match concludes the season. Until then, the probability may shift based on regular-season results, playoff positioning, and head-to-head performance against other title contenders through the rest of 2026.
- ›San Diego Wave FC's regular-season win-loss record and points accumulation relative to competitors through the 2026 season
- ›Comparative odds across other teams show Washington Spirit at 10% and Kansas City Current at 4%, indicating market differentiation based on recent performance or roster strength
- ›The team's injury status and roster availability leading into the playoff period in late 2026
- ›Historical NWSL Championship performance patterns and how San Diego's recent tournament results compare to other clubs
- ›Playoff bracket positioning and path to the final, which depends entirely on regular-season standings determined by match outcomes through November 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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