Will Charles Melton win Best Actor at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
554 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the Oscars
Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Tom Cruise
KXOSCARACTO-27-TOM
Cluster 2
Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the Oscars
Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Ryan Gosling
KXOSCARACTO-27-RYA
Cluster 3
Will Jafar Jackson win Best Actor at the Oscars
Will Jafar Jackson win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Jafar Jackson
KXOSCARACTO-27-JAF
Cluster 4
Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the Oscars
Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the Oscars?: John Malkovich
KXOSCARACTO-27-JOH
Cluster 5
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the Oscars
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the Oscars?: Ethan Hawke
KXOSCARACTO-27-ETH
Analysis
Charles Melton's 26% probability reflects market assessment of his likelihood to win Best Actor at the upcoming Oscars ceremony. This probability is based on limited trading activity on prediction markets, with the current estimate derived from just two Kalshi contracts. The main drivers of this probability would be Melton's film release schedule, critical reception of his performances, and competitive landscape among other actors in contention. The primary catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the announcement of Official Academy Award nominations, typically occurring in early 2027, which will clarify whether Melton receives a nomination and reveal the full slate of competitors. Until then, market prices may shift based on early festival seasons, critic reviews, and industry commentary about potential contenders.
- ›Limited market liquidity with only two Kalshi contracts trading suggests this probability reflects sparse betting rather than deep consensus; higher volume would provide stronger signal of informed opinion
- ›Charles Melton's nomination status remains unconfirmed, with Academy Awards nominations typically announced in January 2027, creating substantial uncertainty until official announcement
- ›Competitive intensity in Best Actor category significantly influences individual candidate probabilities; emergence of strong contenders or withdrawal of competing films would directly impact pricing
- ›Trading volume of $5,112 over 24 hours indicates relatively low market interest compared to Best Picture contracts, suggesting less sophisticated price discovery
- ›No upcoming scheduled events, award season festivals, or film releases specific to Melton appear imminent that would catalyze significant probability movement before official nominations
What moved the line
- Jun 19Jafar Jackson↑7pp3→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Ryan Gosling↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23John Malkovich↓5pp15→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Tom Cruise↓4pp27→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Tom Cruise↑4pp22→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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