Will Hoppers win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
508 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Wildwood
KXOSCARANIMATED-27-WIL
Cluster 2
Will Tangles win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars
Will Tangles win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Tangles
KXOSCARANIMATED-27-TAN
Cluster 3
Will Toy Story 5 win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars
Will Toy Story 5 win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Toy Story 5
KXOSCARANIMATED-27-TOY
Cluster 4
Will Hoppers win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars
Will Hoppers win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Hoppers
KXOSCARANIMATED-27-HOP
Cluster 5
Will Tie win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars
Will Tie win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?: Tie
KXOSCARANIMATED-27-TIE
Analysis
This 22% probability represents the estimated odds that Hoppers will win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film at the next Oscars ceremony. The estimate is significantly lower than Toy Story 5, which trades at 61%, suggesting market participants view Hoppers as a secondary contender in the animated feature category. The probability reflects assessments of the film's critical reception, industry recognition through precursor awards (like the Golden Globes and Annie Awards), and its standing relative to other nominees. Key drivers of movement would include changes in critical consensus, performance at film festivals, or shifts in voter sentiment within the Academy. The final resolution occurs at the Oscars ceremony, which typically takes place in early 2027 for films released in 2026. Until then, the probability may adjust based on emerging information about the competitive landscape and Hoppers' reception among Academy members.
- ›Toy Story 5 currently trades at 3.6x higher probability, indicating strong market confidence in its competitive position relative to Hoppers
- ›Zero trading volume in the 24-hour period for the Hoppers contract suggests minimal recent market activity and conviction
- ›Hoppers ranks third among the four tracked contracts, behind both Toy Story 5 and Wildwood in implied probability
- ›The market assigns combined probability of 81% to the three competitors versus 19% for Hoppers, indicating it is viewed as a long-shot entry
- ›Precursor award season performance (Golden Globes, Annie Awards, BAFTA) will provide major data points before Academy voting occurs in late 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 9Wildwood↑10pp10→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Toy Story 5↓10pp61→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Wildwood↓8pp18→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Wildwood↑5pp20→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Toy Story 5↑5pp51→56¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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